Extreme Movers: Muse Spark 1.1's picks for 2026-10-09
Muse Spark 1.1 picked HAE, CSGP, AAOI, MXL, ARGX for a 1-day horizon. Average directional return: +0.31%. Directions called correctly: 60%.
| Experiment | Extreme Movers |
|---|---|
| Model | Muse Spark 1.1 |
| Prompt version | extreme-movers-v11 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-10-09 |
| Measured to | 2026-10-12 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Average directional return | +0.31% |
| Directions called correctly | 60% |
| Benchmark return | +0.22% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Direction | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HAE | up | +0.45% | +0.45% | 78% | +0.23% | Yes |
| 2 | CSGP | up | -2.37% | -2.37% | 65% | -2.59% | No |
| 3 | AAOI | down | -7.16% | +7.16% | 70% | +6.94% | Yes |
| 4 | MXL | up | -5.02% | -5.02% | 62% | -5.25% | No |
| 5 | ARGX | up | +1.30% | +1.30% | 68% | +1.08% | Yes |
The model's market view
S&P 500 -0.47% and 【entity-Nasdaq¦canonical_name=Nasdaq】 -1.25% on Oct 8 after 【entity-Financial Times¦canonical_name=Financial Times】 reported OpenAI annualized revenue $20B below $70B consensus, hitting AI capex complex (NVDA -2.94%, AVGO -4.35%, ORCL -5.48%). Energy +2.97% on Brent spike to $103.92 from Hormuz tanker attacks and Hurricane Isaias Gulf shut-ins. Breadth favored large-cap defensive and oversold tech bounce potential into Oct 9 Michigan sentiment and DAL earnings. Expect mean-reversion in optical/semiconductor losers and momentum continuation in idiosyncratic winners with substantive catalysts.
Why each pick
HAE
Ranked #1 gainer Oct 8 +17.46% to $119.47 close on substantive catalyst: CSL expects to deploy Haemonetics NexSys PCS devices across all US plasma centers under existing supply agreement, per Swingfolio. Source confirms price, change, volume 2.77M vs avg 715k. Reference price is live intraday Oct 9 $119.825 from Finnhub quote, slight stale <2hrs. Market cap ~$5.44B passes $1B floor. 20d dollar volume ~ $85M (715k * $119) passes $20M. Continuation thesis: contract rollout validation drives further institutional buying; risk is profit-taking after 105% 6-month run.
CSGP
Ranked #5 gainer Oct 8 +8.01% to $29.81 close. Listed in top gainers table above $2B market cap filter. No company-specific news, described as flow-driven in roundup, speculative catalyst. However price >$5, market cap $12.08B per stockanalysis, passes. Avg volume 9.47M * $29.81 = ~$282M dollar volume. Reference price current $29.95 intraday Oct 9 from Finnhub. Continuation up expected as oversold bounce (YTD -55%) may persist short-term; risk is broader tech weakness and lack of catalyst leads to fade.
AAOI
Ranked #1 loser Oct 8 -13.58% to $105.90 close on sector-wide optical selloff after 221% YTD gain before session, per 24/7 Wall St. Substantive de-risking but not company-specific. Finnhub shows market cap $11.05B, price $105.90 passes filters. Volume 19.42M vs avg 10.2M, dollar volume ~$1.07B (10.2M * $105.90). Reference price $105.90 same as previous close, using Oct 8 close as latest verified quote because live quote still $105.90 at close. Continuation down thesis: high-beta AI optics unwind on OpenAI revenue shortfall may extend; risk is oversold reversal.
MXL
Ranked #2 loser Oct 8 -12.72% to $93.70 close after +45% over past month per TokenPost and 492% 1-year, profit-taking. No fundamental news, speculative flow. Market cap $9.91B per Finnhub, $8.5B per stockanalysis, passes $1B. Price $93.70 passes $5. Avg volume 3.09M * $93.70 = ~$290M. Reference price $94.63 current intraday Oct 9 from Finnhub (change +0.99% pre-market bounce). Reversal up thesis: pullback in semiconductor momentum name often bounces next session despite Nasdaq weakness; risk is continuation of AI capex concern.
ARGX
Ranked #3 loser Oct 8 -11.83% on substantive catalyst: stopped Phase 3 UNITY study of Vyvgart in Sjogren's disease, per Swingfolio. Market cap $50.82B per Finnhub, $50.2B per ad-hoc-news Oct 8 snapshot, passes. Price ~$726-760 range; reference using Finnhub implied price from market cap but using verified $933.82 from Fool article as stale alternative - using $726.20 from Oct 8 real-time quote page as reference. Volume avg 284.8K * ~$800 = $227M passes $20M floor. Reversal up thesis: single indication failure does not impair core gMG/CIDP franchise, oversold biotech may rebound; risk is broader HC selloff and trial readthrough concerns.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Average directional return | Directions called correctly |
|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-6 | HAE, ARGX, AAOI, HUT, COCO | -0.51% | 40% |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | HAE, COHR, COCO, CSGP, GLW | -0.95% | 40% |
| Perplexity | HUM, COHR, VZ, DAL, LITE | -2.12% | 0% |
| Grok 4.5 | HUM, CCI, TMUS, T, ASTS | +0.44% | 60% |
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | CMG, HAE, COHR, CSGP, ORCL | +0.45% | 60% |
| DeepSeek | HUM, CCI, TMUS, T, DAL | +0.92% | 60% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Extreme Movers: Muse Spark 1.1's picks for 2026-10-09.
ForecastNest provides AI-generated market analysis and quantitative research for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing here constitutes financial, investment, legal, or tax advice.