Event Gaps: Muse Spark 1.1's picks for 2026-10-08
Muse Spark 1.1 picked PEP, TSM, DAL, LEVI, STZ for a 1-day horizon. Intraday alpha vs SPY: -1.66%. Picks with positive alpha: 20%.
| Experiment | Event Gaps |
|---|---|
| Model | Muse Spark 1.1 |
| Prompt version | event-gap-v12 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-10-08 |
| Measured to | 2026-10-09 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Intraday alpha vs SPY | -1.66% |
| Picks with positive alpha | 20% |
| Benchmark return | +0.06% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Gap direction | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PEP | -0.38% | +0.38% | 68% | +0.32% | Yes | |
| 2 | TSM | -3.31% | -3.31% | 72% | -3.37% | No | |
| 3 | DAL | -1.84% | -1.84% | 65% | -1.90% | No | |
| 4 | LEVI | -1.64% | -1.64% | 66% | -1.71% | No | |
| 5 | STZ | +1.56% | -1.56% | 60% | -1.63% | No |
The model's market view
Earnings season is kicking off with mega-cap staples and airlines in focus. October 8 saw 【entity-PepsiCo¦canonical_name=PepsiCo】 beat small but cut implied outlook, Levi beat big on Oct 7 after close, and TSMC disclosed +51% YoY Q3 sales this morning. Anticipation for Delta Air Lines Oct 9 pre-open is building into lower fuel prices. Volatility likely concentrated in recent reporters with guidance shifts.
Why each pick
PEP
【entity-PepsiCo¦canonical_name=PepsiCo】 reported Q3 FY2026 Oct 8 before open: EPS $2.34 vs $2.32 consensus and revenue $25.27B vs $25.23B. Beat was small (+0.9%) and coverage notes turnaround still lacks fizz and guidance remains cautious. Stock was $123.73 close Oct 7 and traded up to $126.20 intraday Oct 8 but faces profit taking. Expect fade within window as expectations vs reported facts diverge. Risk is continued buying on activist Elliott $4B stake narrative.
TSM
TSMC disclosed September sales NT$511.86B up 54.6% YoY and Q3 revenue NT$1.49T up 51% YoY on Oct 8 per financial calendar monthly sales bulletin at 13:30 Taipei. Fact is observed, ahead of Oct 15 Q3 earnings call. AI chip demand strong, Samsung record profit warning already priced. Anticipation of Oct 15 beat should lift ADR within window despite high valuation. Risk is profit taking after 60% YTD run.
DAL
Delta Air Lines Q3 2026 earnings officially scheduled before open Friday Oct 9, 2026 with call 10am ET. Consensus $1.92-$1.99 EPS, revenue ~$17.6-18.9B. Event is future within window end, so move is anticipation. Fuel costs falling, demand solid, but Zacks cut to Strong Sell adds uncertainty. Expect positioning for beat to drive up move from now to window end. Risk is guidance on fuel and premium demand disappointment.
LEVI
Levi Strauss reported Q3 2026 Oct 7 after close: EPS $0.48 vs $0.36 est (+31.5% surprise), revenue $1.61B vs $1.65B est slightly light. Raised FY2026 guidance to $1.54-$1.56 from $1.46-$1.52 citing tariff refunds and holiday demand. Price $19.48 on high volume 14.5M vs avg 2.7M. Emotional continuation likely as margin expansion and DTC +11% story builds. Risk is revenue miss and inventory concerns causing reversal.
STZ
Constellation Brands reported Q2 FY2027 (calendar Q3) Oct 6: EPS $3.74 vs $3.55 est beat by $0.19, revenue $2.63B up 6.1% YoY beating. Updated FY2027 guidance $11.20-$11.90 vs $11.74 consensus midpoint slightly soft. Stock $116.36 on 5.5M volume vs 2.2M avg, down from $126 50-day. Post-earnings drift down likely as beer decline -11% YoY underlying noted. Risk is value buying on 2.75% yield.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Intraday alpha vs SPY | Picks with positive alpha |
|---|---|---|---|
| Perplexity | PEP, DAL, STZ, PFE, BMY | -0.44% | 40% |
| GPT-6 | APLD, LEVI, DAL, STZ, PEP | +0.94% | 80% |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | SPOT, PEP, CW, MRNA, DAL | +1.66% | 80% |
| Grok 4 | ARGX, PENG, PEP, DAL, STZ | -0.09% | 40% |
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | DAL, APLD, WOLF, PEP, LEVI | +0.42% | 60% |
| DeepSeek | DAL, HUM, SPCX, UNH, WOLF | +3.12% | 80% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Event Gaps: Muse Spark 1.1's picks for 2026-10-08.
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