Event Gaps: Muse Spark 1.1's picks for 2026-10-05
Muse Spark 1.1 picked PENG, LW, RPM, STZ, PEP for a 1-day horizon. Intraday alpha vs SPY: -4.53%. Picks with positive alpha: 0%.
| Experiment | Event Gaps |
|---|---|
| Model | Muse Spark 1.1 |
| Prompt version | event-gap-v12 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-10-05 |
| Measured to | 2026-10-06 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Intraday alpha vs SPY | -4.53% |
| Picks with positive alpha | 0% |
| Benchmark return | +1.11% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Gap direction | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PENG | +0.27% | +0.27% | 68% | -0.84% | No | |
| 2 | LW | +11.89% | -11.89% | 65% | -13.00% | No | |
| 3 | RPM | -2.12% | -2.12% | 62% | -3.24% | No | |
| 4 | STZ | +2.07% | -2.07% | 64% | -3.19% | No | |
| 5 | PEP | +1.28% | -1.28% | 60% | -2.40% | No |
The model's market view
Market enters a heavy earnings week with Oct 6 as first cluster. Lamb Weston, RPM, Penguin Solutions and Constellation Brands all report Oct 6, creating high gap risk. 【entity-PepsiCo¦canonical_name=PepsiCo】 reports Oct 8 but pre-earnings positioning will move it on Oct 6. High beta AI names like PENG remain extended, while staples are weak into prints. Anticipation of guidance cuts in consumer and chemicals favors downside for LW/STZ/PEP and upside volatility for beaten-down RPM and high-momentum PENG.
Why each pick
PENG
Penguin Solutions reports Q4 FY2026 after close Oct 6, expected EPS $0.766 and revenue $519M, after beating last quarter by $0.21. Stock is +208% YTD and up 19.9% into print with high beta 2.87. Current price $60.29 reflects extreme momentum. Officially scheduled AMC catalyst; anticipation can drive intraday squeeze before print and after-hours gap. Risk is profit-taking after parabolic move.
LW
Lamb Weston reports Q1 2027 before open Oct 6, expected $0.584 EPS on $1.654B revenue, guidance $2.95-3.25. Stock opened $43.17 recently, market cap $5.99B, 52-week low $37.62. Potato demand weak, prior quarter beat but stock slid. Officially scheduled BMO catalyst. Anticipation negative given recent cuts and frozen foods pressure. Price is $43.72 intraday on Oct 5.
RPM
RPM International reports Q1 2027 before open Oct 6, expected $1.95 EPS on $2.2227B revenue, call at 10 AM ET. Last quarter beat $1.89 vs $1.83. Market cap ~$12.78B, price $98.73-100.19. Specialty coatings benefit from construction but recent price -6% last month. Officially scheduled. Anticipation could drive modest upside if pre-announcement chatter positive. Dollar volume ~104M exceeds $20M floor.
STZ
Constellation Brands reports Q2 2027 after close Oct 6, expected $3.55 EPS on $2.5384B revenue, call Oct 7 8 AM ET. Last quarter missed $3.43 vs $3.70. Market cap $19.28B, price ~$111.75 down -12% month. Beer/wine under pressure, guidance risk. Officially scheduled AMC. Even though event occurs after target window close, anticipation of weak beer volumes can drive selling on Oct 6.
PEP
PepsiCo reports Q3 2026 before open Oct 8, expected $2.30 EPS on $24.977B revenue, FY guidance $8.55-8.71. Current price $124.69, market cap $171.84B, average volume 8.47M shares (~$1.06B dollar volume). Officially scheduled two days after window, but anticipation moves market now: recent downgrades JPM to Neutral $138 target, weak North America. Expect defensive selling into print on Oct 6.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Intraday alpha vs SPY | Picks with positive alpha |
|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | PCVX, RXO, VST, INTC, DKNG | -2.30% | 40% |
| Perplexity | PCVX, WDC, STX, SYNA, STZ | -2.86% | 40% |
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | CHRW, LW, PENG, RXO, INTC | +0.37% | 20% |
| Grok 4.5 | LW, RPM, STZ, PENG, PTC | -4.40% | 0% |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | CHRW, PTC, VST, MOS, LW | +3.58% | 60% |
| DeepSeek | STZ, PEP, DAL, APLD, LW | +2.68% | 80% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Event Gaps: Muse Spark 1.1's picks for 2026-10-05.
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