Event Gaps: Kimi's picks for 2026-10-01
Kimi picked ACN, UTHR, LQDA, NKE, MKC for a 1-day horizon. Intraday alpha vs SPY: -5.18%. Picks with positive alpha: 20%.
| Experiment | Event Gaps |
|---|---|
| Model | Kimi |
| Prompt version | event-gap-v12 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-10-01 |
| Measured to | 2026-10-02 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Intraday alpha vs SPY | -5.18% |
| Picks with positive alpha | 20% |
| Benchmark return | +1.52% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Gap direction | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ACN | -10.21% | -10.21% | 68% | -11.73% | No | |
| 2 | UTHR | -3.26% | -3.26% | 64% | -4.78% | No | |
| 3 | LQDA | +10.26% | -10.26% | 66% | -11.78% | No | |
| 4 | NKE | -7.23% | +7.23% | 52% | +5.71% | Yes | |
| 5 | MKC | -1.79% | -1.79% | 55% | -3.31% | No |
The model's market view
Catalyst-rich October 1: Accenture is soaring on a Q4 beat, the Liquidia/United Therapeutics patent ruling is reshaping both stocks, McCormick reaffirmed its year after a solid Q3, and Nike reports after the close. I favor continuation of the earnings-driven moves and the litigation winner/loser divergence, with Nike biased lower into its report on downgrade pressure.
Why each pick
ACN
Accenture reported Q4 FY26 results before the Oct 1 open: EPS $3.29 vs $3.18 consensus, revenue $18.7B vs $18.04B, and FY27 revenue growth guided to 3-6% (sources: stockanalysis.com ACN overview, barrons.com Oct 1). The stock traded around $225 intraday Oct 1, up roughly 20%+ from the $183.37 Sep 30 close. The event has occurred; the forecast is for modest additional continuation through Oct 2 rather than a full fade, though a give-back of part of the gap is the main risk. reference_price $225.27 is a live intraday quote (Oct 1, 10:07 AM EDT, stockanalysis.com); market cap $137.85B verified there. avg_dollar_volume_20d_usd (~$400M) is an estimate from recent volume of 2-2.5M shares near $170-185 and should be treated as approximate.
UTHR
United Therapeutics prevailed in its patent litigation against Liquidia on Sep 30 when the court ruled Liquidia infringed two claims of the '327 patent covering treprostinil; UTHR jumped 12.55% to $541.98 on Sep 30 and BTIG upgraded the stock to Buy with a $728 target on Oct 1 (sources: ir.unither.com press releases Sep 30; investing.com Oct 1). The litigation win is substantive and protects Tyvaso economics. Direction up on continuation, with analyst-upgrade follow-through the near-term driver. Risks: the CEO has been selling stock daily under a 10b5-1 plan, and a sharp two-day rally can consolidate. reference_price $541.98 is the Sep 30 regular-session close (Finviz/Barron's); I could not refresh an Oct 1 intraday quote, so data_date is 2026-09-30. market cap ~$23.2B verified intraday Sep 30. avg_dollar_volume_20d_usd (~$250M) is an estimate from ~500K shares/day near $480-500.
LQDA
Liquidia crashed 57.19% to $30.26 on Sep 30 after the court ruled it infringed two claims of United Therapeutics' '327 patent, threatening Yutrepia's commercial prospects; on Oct 1, BofA cut its target to $40 from $92 and BTIG downgraded to Neutral (sources: stockanalysis.com LQDA; investing.com Sep 30; thefly via stockanalysis.com news). Downgrade momentum and uncertainty around the injunction/remedy phase argue for continuation lower, though a partial bounce after a 57% single-day loss is the main risk. reference_price $30.30 is the Sep 30 after-hours quote (MarketWatch, 7:59 PM EDT); data_date 2026-09-30. market cap $2.71B verified Sep 30 (stockanalysis.com). avg_dollar_volume_20d_usd (~$80M) is an estimate from roughly 1-2M shares/day at pre-crash prices near $55-70.
NKE
Nike reports Q1 FY27 results after the market close on Oct 1, 2026 (confirmed date; sources: stockanalysis.com NKE statistics, marketwatch.com). The setup is negative: BofA downgraded NKE to Underperform with a $30 price target on Sep 25/Oct 1, Needham sees more downside, the stock sits near its 52-week low of $35.22, and it fell 1.23% to $35.40 on Sep 30 with a weak premarket Oct 1. I forecast a negative reaction or continued pressure through the window; a beat-and-raise turnaround is the main risk to the down call. reference_price $35.14 is a premarket quote from Oct 1 at 5:47 AM EDT (MarketWatch); data_date 2026-10-01. market cap $52.52B verified (stockanalysis.com). avg_dollar_volume_20d_usd (~$1.0B) is estimated from ~28M shares/day near $35-40.
MKC
McCormick reported Q3 2026 results before the Oct 1 open: net sales $2.02B (+17% on the McCormick de Mexico acquisition), adjusted EPS $0.86 vs $0.85 a year ago, and it reaffirmed its full-year 2026 outlook (source: prnewswire.com Q3 release, Oct 1). The stock had sold off 4.13% to $46.40 on Sep 30 and was indicated around $48.60 premarket Oct 1, a relief rebound on the reaffirmed guidance. Direction up on continuation of the post-earnings recovery; risks include the large special-charge-driven GAAP EPS decline ($0.36, -57%) and consumer-staples softness. reference_price $48.60 is a premarket quote from Oct 1 (WSJ market data); data_date 2026-10-01. market cap $12.47B verified Sep 30 (stockanalysis.com). avg_dollar_volume_20d_usd (~$90M) is an estimate from roughly 1.5-2M shares/day near $45-48.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Intraday alpha vs SPY | Picks with positive alpha |
|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | ACN, NKE, MU, MKC, AYI | -2.48% | 40% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | ACN, NKE, TSLA, AYI, CPRX | -2.00% | 40% |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | NVDA, TSLA, AMZN, AMD, MSFT | +0.77% | 60% |
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | TSLA, NKE, SNPS, ACN, MU | -4.96% | 20% |
| DeepSeek | NKE, SWKS, QRVO, VICR, ROG | -0.42% | 40% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Event Gaps: Kimi's picks for 2026-10-01.
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