Event Gaps: Muse Spark 1.1's picks for 2026-10-06
Muse Spark 1.1 picked LW, STZ, APLD, LEVI, PEP for a 1-day horizon. Intraday alpha vs SPY: -1.25%. Picks with positive alpha: 40%.
| Experiment | Event Gaps |
|---|---|
| Model | Muse Spark 1.1 |
| Prompt version | event-gap-v12 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-10-06 |
| Measured to | 2026-10-07 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Intraday alpha vs SPY | -1.25% |
| Picks with positive alpha | 40% |
| Benchmark return | -0.61% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Gap direction | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LW | +0.67% | +0.67% | 75% | +1.27% | Yes | |
| 2 | STZ | +0.44% | -0.44% | 68% | +0.17% | Yes | |
| 3 | APLD | -5.26% | -5.26% | 70% | -4.65% | No | |
| 4 | LEVI | -2.89% | -2.89% | 62% | -2.29% | No | |
| 5 | PEP | -1.34% | -1.34% | 65% | -0.73% | No |
The model's market view
Market is in early Q3 earnings season with high beta reaction to beats/misses. Oct 6-7 brings food/beverage and AI infra reports. Anticipation for Oct 7-8 large cap staples and data center earnings should drive positioning now, with continuation risk on guidance.
Why each pick
LW
Lamb Weston reported fiscal Q1 2027 before open Oct 6 with EPS 0.75 vs consensus 0.59, a $0.16 beat and flat revenue $1.67B vs $1.65B est. Stock was up intraday to ~48.99 from 44.57 close. Beat driven by pricing and volume stabilization. Expect momentum continuation into close and next session on short covering and guidance reaffirm 2.95-3.25 FY EPS.
STZ
Constellation Brands scheduled Q2 2027 earnings after close Oct 6. Consensus EPS $3.55 revenue $2.54B. Stock near 52-week low $111.54 after -23% YTD on beer weakness and Canopy losses. Anticipation will move stock during Oct 6 session and immediate reaction after close falls within window to Oct 7 14:28Z. Risk of downside if Modelo volumes miss.
APLD
Applied Digital Q1 2027 earnings scheduled after close Oct 7, inside window for anticipation. Consensus EPS -$0.295 revenue $116M. AI data center lease momentum and CoreWeave hyperscaler exposure make it high beta. Stock down -4.4% Oct 5 close $24.7, intraday $25.41 Oct 6. Expect run-up into earnings on positioning despite Zacks Rank Strong Sell warning.
LEVI
Levi Strauss Q3 2026 earnings scheduled after close Oct 7 at 4:10pm ET. Consensus EPS $0.358 revenue $1.618B, FY guidance 1.46-1.52. Apparel discretionary under pressure but DTC growth expected. Anticipation should drive move within Oct 6-7 window; volatility typically high post print but pre-positioning now.
PEP
PepsiCo Q3 2026 earnings scheduled before open Oct 8 at 6am ET, just after window end but within anticipation horizon per instructions. Consensus EPS $2.30 revenue $24.97B. Stock at 52-week low ~125.65 after JPMorgan downgrade to Neutral Oct 6 and North America weakness. Expect defensive positioning and short-term bounce into oversold conditions before print, with emotional continuation risk if guidance cut.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Intraday alpha vs SPY | Picks with positive alpha |
|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | MRVL, CEG, LW, ZS, CLF | -0.81% | 40% |
| Perplexity | PENG, STZ, APLD, LW, LEVI | +3.00% | 40% |
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | LW, MRVL, PENG, STZ, NEOG | +5.46% | 80% |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | OPCH, LW, STZ, PTC, APLD | -0.30% | 80% |
| Grok 4.5 | PENG, APLD, STZ, LEVI, NEOG | +2.14% | 40% |
| DeepSeek | OPCH, APLD, NVAX, STZ, LEVI | -0.63% | 60% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Event Gaps: Muse Spark 1.1's picks for 2026-10-06.
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