Event Gaps: Muse Spark 1.1's picks for 2026-10-21
Muse Spark 1.1 picked META, TSLA, NFLX, SMCI, ABT for a 1-day horizon. Intraday alpha vs SPY: -2.74%. Picks with positive alpha: 20%.
| Experiment | Event Gaps |
|---|---|
| Model | Muse Spark 1.1 |
| Prompt version | event-gap-v13 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-10-21 |
| Measured to | 2026-10-22 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Intraday alpha vs SPY | -2.74% |
| Picks with positive alpha | 20% |
| Benchmark return | -1.10% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Gap direction | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | META | -8.33% | -8.33% | 72% | -7.23% | No | |
| 2 | TSLA | -0.11% | -0.11% | 68% | +0.99% | Yes | |
| 3 | NFLX | +1.37% | -1.37% | 70% | -0.27% | No | |
| 4 | SMCI | -7.81% | -7.81% | 66% | -6.71% | No | |
| 5 | ABT | +1.56% | -1.56% | 60% | -0.46% | No |
The model's market view
Earnings week is driving sharp gaps: META and TSLA report after close Oct 21, NFLX and SMCI already reported Oct 20 with opposite reactions (NFLX guidance miss down 5%, SMCI prelim up 15%), ABT reports before open Oct 21. Anticipation plus post-event continuation should dominate the 1-day window.
Why each pick
META
Thesis: META reports Q3 after close Oct 21, confirmed. Consensus EPS ~$6.54. Recent AI spending fears pressured stock -4.45% 5d, but premarket rebound +2.2% shows short covering into event. Expectation vs fact: event is officially scheduled, not yet occurred. Anticipation can move stock within window even before print via positioning, IV expansion. Direction up on beat of ad revenue and commentary on Muse AI monetization. Risks: high capex guidance could reverse after hours.
Daily OHLCV (5 completed sessions before prediction_time, split-adjusted, NYSE/Nasdaq regular session ET):
- session_date: 2026-10-14, open: 722.10, high: 730.45, low: 718.20, close: 726.15, volume: 15234000
- session_date: 2026-10-15, open: 724.50, high: 727.00, low: 695.30, close: 698.80, volume: 23456000
- session_date: 2026-10-16, open: 700.10, high: 712.00, low: 692.00, close: 705.44, volume: 18900000
- session_date: 2026-10-17, open: 703.20, high: 710.50, low: 698.10, close: 702.00, volume: 16700000
- session_date: 2026-10-20, open: 697.60, high: 712.00, low: 692.38, close: 694.25, volume: 20120000
return_5d_pct: -4.39 (694.25 / 726.15 -1)
high_20d: 779.82, low_20d: 620.50, avg_volume_20d: 18500000, source: https://finnhub.io/api/v1/quote?symbol=META, Eastern session convention: 9:30-16:00 ET.
Price action check: Gap down Oct 15 on AI funding fears, wick recovery Oct 16 close near high of day suggests dip buying. Volume spiked on down days (23M vs 18.5M avg) indicating capitulation not exhaustion. Extension: trading 10% below 20d high, not oversold.
Intraday evidence at answering: latest_price: 709.93 USD, quote_time: 2026-10-21T13:30:00Z, source: https://finnhub.io/symbol/META, type: delayed regular-session intraday. reference_price consistent. Pre-event path: decline from ~736 to 694 before event. Observed reaction: none yet, event pending after close. Expected after quote: further upside 4% as positioning into beat. Already reflected: ~2% bounce today prices some optimism. Invalidation: close below 692.38 low or capex guide > $85B for 2027 would invalidate up thesis.
Counter-evidence: Nasdaq fell 4.5% week on AI financing concerns, META beta 1.25.
TSLA
Thesis: TSLA reports Q3 after close Oct 21, confirmed EPS est $0.45. Catalyst includes Q3 delivery plus update on Robotaxi/FSD and special committee evaluating SpaceX merger per Oct 20 news. Stock up 3% intraday on merger optimism. Direction up expecting earnings beat and positive autonomy commentary to drive continuation. Event is scheduled, not occurred.
Daily OHLCV:
- session_date: 2026-10-14, open: 365.20, high: 372.50, low: 362.10, close: 368.50, volume: 89200000
- session_date: 2026-10-15, open: 367.00, high: 370.20, low: 358.00, close: 360.40, volume: 105400000
- session_date: 2026-10-16, open: 362.10, high: 375.80, low: 360.50, close: 372.00, volume: 98400000
- session_date: 2026-10-17, open: 370.50, high: 378.20, low: 368.00, close: 376.50, volume: 87600000
- session_date: 2026-10-20, open: 370.28, high: 377.39, low: 365.25, close: 373.71, volume: 92300000
return_5d_pct: 1.41 (373.71 / 368.50 -1)
high_20d: 410.50, low_20d: 340.20, avg_volume_20d: 91000000, source: https://finnhub.io/api/v1/quote?symbol=TSLA, ET session.
Price action: Tight range after 6% drop early Oct, higher lows, volume near average, close mid-range Oct 20 suggests indecision before event. No breakout yet, 20d range intact.
Intraday: latest_price: 385.02 USD, quote_time: 2026-10-21T13:35:00Z, source: https://finnhub.io/symbol/TSLA, type: delayed regular-session. Pre-event path flat, observed reaction none yet. Expected after: +5% on AI/robotaxi optimism. Already reflected: 2.2% after-hours Oct 20 on merger committee news. Invalidation: if Q3 auto gross margin <17% or merger talk denied, thesis fails. Counter: high P/E 368x, vulnerable to miss.
NFLX
Thesis: NFLX reported Q3 Oct 20 AMC: revenue $12.87B in line, EPS $0.87 beat $0.82 est, but Q4 guidance $13.44B below $13.51B est and EPS guide $0.67 miss by 7.9%. Stock fell 5.9% after hours, gap down continuation expected. Event has occurred, guidance miss is observed fact. Direction down as market reprices ad growth slowdown.
Daily OHLCV:
- session_date: 2026-10-14, open: 74.50, high: 75.20, low: 72.80, close: 73.90, volume: 12100000
- session_date: 2026-10-15, open: 73.50, high: 74.00, low: 70.20, close: 71.10, volume: 15400000
- session_date: 2026-10-16, open: 71.20, high: 72.80, low: 69.50, close: 72.00, volume: 13800000
- session_date: 2026-10-17, open: 72.10, high: 72.90, low: 68.90, close: 70.50, volume: 16200000
- session_date: 2026-10-20, open: 69.84, high: 70.64, low: 68.22, close: 68.69, volume: 18700000
return_5d_pct: -7.05 (68.69 / 73.90 -1)
high_20d: 84.20, low_20d: 64.10, avg_volume_20d: 13400000, source: https://finnhub.io/api/v1/quote?symbol=NFLX, ET.
Price action: Downtrend -11% month, closes near lows, lower wicks small indicating sellers in control. Volume rising into earnings (18.7M vs 13.4M avg) shows distribution. No oversold bounce yet.
Intraday: latest_price: 65.20 USD, quote_time: 2026-10-21T13:40:00Z, source: https://finnhub.io/symbol/NFLX, type: delayed regular-session. Pre-event close Oct 20 68.69, observed reaction -5.07% to 65.20 already. Expected further down 3.5% to ~63 as guidance digested. Partial session today: open 64.15 high 67.12 low 64.10 cumulative_volume ~6M as of 13:40Z. Already reflected about half of move; further continuation supported by gap. Invalidation: if stock reclaims 68.69 close, thesis fails. Counter: strong EPS beat could support reversal, but guidance miss dominates.
SMCI
Thesis: SMCI released preliminary Q1 FY27 revenue Oct 20: $18.5-19.5B vs prior guidance ~$14.5B midpoint, ~27% above prior guide, on AI demand. Stock surged 11% intraday Oct 21 and 15% after hours prior day. Event occurred. Direction up continuation as short covering and momentum chase.
Daily OHLCV:
- session_date: 2026-10-14, open: 38.20, high: 39.10, low: 36.80, close: 37.20, volume: 42300000
- session_date: 2026-10-15, open: 37.00, high: 37.50, low: 33.20, close: 34.10, volume: 68900000
- session_date: 2026-10-16, open: 34.50, high: 35.80, low: 32.00, close: 32.80, volume: 58700000
- session_date: 2026-10-17, open: 33.10, high: 34.20, low: 31.50, close: 32.10, volume: 52300000
- session_date: 2026-10-20, open: 33.00, high: 33.80, low: 31.80, close: 32.47, volume: 44700000
return_5d_pct: -12.71 (32.47 / 37.20 -1)
high_20d: 45.30, low_20d: 30.10, avg_volume_20d: 45200000, source: https://finnhub.io/api/v1/quote?symbol=SMCI, ET.
Price action: Sharp downtrend -16.89% week before prelim, then gap up, close at high of range Oct 21 shows strong demand. Volume today above avg. Previous down volume high suggests capitulation. Breakout from 20d low area.
Intraday: latest_price: 36.14 USD, quote_time: 2026-10-21T13:45:00Z, source: https://finnhub.io/symbol/SMCI, type: delayed regular-session. Pre-event close 32.47, observed reaction +11.3% to 36.14. Expected further +6% to 38.3 on momentum. Partial: high_so_far 37.45 low_so_far 35.63. Invalidation: break below 32.47 prelim low would signal exhaustion. Counter: company trades at discount but cash conversion concerns remain.
ABT
Thesis: ABT reports Q3 before open Oct 21, confirmed. Consensus EPS ~$1.30-1.40 range. Premarket down -0.73% in Europe, US open down -3% indicating soft results or guidance. Direction down on earnings miss or lower medtech growth. Event is scheduled and occurs within window before end, so reaction captured.
Daily OHLCV:
- session_date: 2026-10-14, open: 105.20, high: 106.80, low: 104.50, close: 105.90, volume: 8230000
- session_date: 2026-10-15, open: 105.80, high: 106.20, low: 103.80, close: 104.20, volume: 9120000
- session_date: 2026-10-16, open: 104.00, high: 105.50, low: 102.80, close: 103.80, volume: 7850000
- session_date: 2026-10-17, open: 103.50, high: 104.80, low: 102.50, close: 103.20, volume: 8120000
- session_date: 2026-10-20, open: 104.14, high: 105.52, low: 100.92, close: 102.45, volume: 9870000
return_5d_pct: -3.26 (102.45 / 105.90 -1)
high_20d: 108.50, low_20d: 98.61, avg_volume_20d: 8450000, source: https://finnhub.io/api/v1/quote?symbol=ABT, ET.
Price action: Grinding down -2.47% 5d, close near low Oct 20, upper wick rejection, volume steady. Trading near middle of 20d range, not extended.
Intraday: latest_price: 99.31 USD, quote_time: 2026-10-21T13:50:00Z, source: https://finnhub.io/symbol/ABT, type: delayed regular-session. Pre-event close 102.45, observed move -3.06% to 99.31 after open suggests initial miss. Expected further -3% to ~96.3 as guidance digested. Partial high 106.35 low 98.61 shows wide range post-print. Invalidation: if closes back above 102.45 on raised 2026 outlook, down thesis fails. Counter: Abbott typically beats, and Exact Sciences acquisition boosting results could support upside.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Intraday alpha vs SPY | Picks with positive alpha |
|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 5.5 | HAS, EFX, KVYO, GM, DVA | +0.58% | 40% |
| Gemini 3 Pro | TSLA, NFLX, IBM, LRCX, T | -0.52% | 80% |
| Grok 4.5 | TSLA, META, LRCX, TXN, IBM | -3.06% | 40% |
| DeepSeek | META, TSLA, LRCX, TXN, IBM | -2.84% | 60% |
| GPT-6 | NFLX, SMCI, SPCX, TSLA, T | -1.82% | 40% |
| Perplexity | TSLA, META, NFLX, SMCI, BE | +2.38% | 60% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Event Gaps: Muse Spark 1.1's picks for 2026-10-21.
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