Event Gaps: Grok 4.7's picks for 2026-10-27
Grok 4.7 picked HOOD, STX, SOFI, ENPH, NXPI for a 1-day horizon. Intraday alpha vs SPY: +3.79%. Picks with positive alpha: 60%.
| Experiment | Event Gaps |
|---|---|
| Model | Grok 4.7 |
| Prompt version | event-gap-v13 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-10-27 |
| Measured to | 2026-10-28 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Intraday alpha vs SPY | +3.79% |
| Picks with positive alpha | 60% |
| Benchmark return | +0.52% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Gap direction | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HOOD | -4.53% | +4.53% | 68% | +4.01% | Yes | |
| 2 | STX | -3.57% | -3.57% | 72% | -4.09% | No | |
| 3 | SOFI | +3.76% | +3.76% | 60% | +3.24% | Yes | |
| 4 | ENPH | -16.34% | +16.34% | 55% | +15.82% | Yes | |
| 5 | NXPI | +0.47% | +0.47% | 58% | -0.05% | No |
The model's market view
Busy earnings day with multiple large-cap reports after the close and Fed meeting underway; AI and fintech names show elevated option-implied moves while broader indices are modestly higher on the session.
Why each pick
HOOD
HOOD is scheduled to report Q3 2026 results after the close today with the call at 5 PM ET. Options price roughly a 10% move. Recent history shows declines after the last four reports despite beats. Anticipation of the print can drive continued volatility into the close today; the scored window covers after-hours reaction and tomorrow's regular session open/continuation. Latest quote is live regular-session ~94.95 as of ~10:15 AM EDT. Partial session open ~95.19, high so far ~96.53, low so far ~94.02, cumulative volume elevated relative to recent but still early. Pre-event path was a multi-week decline from highs near 150; today's modest bounce is the observed anticipation so far. Further downside expected on typical post-earnings pattern and elevated valuation. Strongest counter-evidence is high short interest and possible crypto/trading volume upside. Invalidation would be a clear beat with raised guidance and strong guidance commentary that holds above 100 into tomorrow's close. Completed daily history (US Eastern, split-adjusted): 2026-10-20 O 95.04 H 101.10 L 94.77 C 98.21 V 14024957; 2026-10-21 O 101.37 H 103.15 L 98.88 C 101.93 V 13895342; 2026-10-22 O 97.78 H 101.38 L 95.62 C 96.58 V 19185765; 2026-10-23 O 96.43 H 97.75 L 94.79 C 95.07 V 13966519; 2026-10-26 O 94.21 H 94.37 L 91.63 C 92.84 V 15488947. return_5d_pct approximately -5.5 from 10/20 close. high_20d and low_20d and full avg_volume_20d not fully verified in snapshot (null for unverified extremes); avg share volume near 18-20M. Source for history and quote: Yahoo Finance / related market data. Price action shows recent lower closes on elevated volume suggesting distribution; supports continuation lower on event risk rather than immediate reversal.
STX
STX reports fiscal Q1 2027 results after the close today with call at 5 PM ET. Company has 100% beat rate over recent quarters and large positive post-earnings moves historically on AI/data-center HDD demand and HAMR adoption. Anticipation can lift shares into the close; window captures AH reaction and tomorrow's session. Latest quote live regular-session near 650-670 range as of morning. Partial session shows strength. Pre-event path included volatility with recent recovery; observed move so far modest. Expect further upside on continuation of strong fundamentals and tight supply narrative. Strongest counter-evidence is valuation after large YTD gains and customer concentration risk. Invalidation would be guidance miss or oversupply comments that push shares below recent support near 620. Completed daily history (US Eastern, split-adjusted): 2026-10-20 O 656.48 H 680.70 L 642.42 C 675.13 V 4043536; 2026-10-21 O 708.25 H 715.63 L 682.72 C 696.89 V 4451895; 2026-10-22 O 669.56 H 672.77 L 629.00 C 642.14 V 5785165; 2026-10-23 O 633.00 H 655.60 L 621.00 C 630.49 V 5572336; 2026-10-26 O 632.25 H 665.55 L 621.65 C 644.21 V 4280184. return_5d_pct negative from mid-week highs. high_20d / low_20d / full avg_volume_20d not fully extracted (null for unverified); avg share volume ~4.6M. Source: Yahoo Finance / MarketWatch historical. Price/volume shows recent high-volume pullbacks but recovery into earnings; supports continuation higher on verified demand backdrop rather than exhaustion.
SOFI
SOFI reported Q3 2026 results before the open today (release ~7 AM ET, call 8 AM ET). Verified beat: adjusted EPS 0.18 vs ~0.17, revenue ~1.37-1.4B (+44% YoY) vs ~1.25B, raised FY26 revenue to 5.04B and introduced 2027 outlook above consensus. Stock gapped up ~10-11% in premarket and is holding gains near 16. Latest quote live regular-session ~16.05 as of ~10:20 AM EDT. Partial session open ~15.98, high so far ~16.28, low so far ~15.67, high volume. Pre-event path was a multi-month decline to lows near 14; observed reaction is the gap-up on the print. Expect modest further upside continuation over the remaining window as investors digest the raised guide and membership growth. Strongest counter-evidence is the already-large gap and potential profit-taking or broader fintech weakness. Invalidation would be a fade back through the open or commentary on credit costs that reverses the move below 15. Completed daily history (US Eastern, split-adjusted): recent closes near 14.46 on 10/26; prior days in mid-14s. return_5d_pct modestly positive into the print. high_20d / low_20d / full avg_volume_20d not fully verified (null); avg share volume ~50M. Source: Reuters / Yahoo Finance. Price action shows the event reaction is partially reflected; volume supports continuation rather than immediate reversal.
ENPH
ENPH is scheduled to report Q3 2026 results after the close today with call at 4:30 PM ET. Options price roughly an 11-12% move. Expectations are for lower YoY revenue and EPS amid solar demand weakness. Anticipation can pressure shares into the close; window covers AH and tomorrow's session. Latest quote live regular-session ~29.9-30.6 as of morning. Partial session mixed. Pre-event path shows multi-month decline from highs near 70; modest recent bounce is the observed anticipation. Expect further downside on soft print or guidance. Strongest counter-evidence is high short interest and any positive data-center or new product commentary. Invalidation would be a beat with raised outlook that holds above 32 into tomorrow. Completed daily history limited in snapshot; recent closes near 30. high_20d / low_20d / full avg_volume_20d not fully verified (null); avg share volume ~4.6M. Source: Yahoo Finance / company IR. Price action shows persistent weakness and elevated short interest supporting further downside risk on the event rather than a rebound.
NXPI
NXPI reports Q3 2026 results after the close today. Options price roughly a 7% move. Semiconductor peer results and AI-related demand provide a constructive backdrop; stock has recovered off recent lows. Anticipation can support shares into the close; window covers AH reaction and tomorrow's session. Latest quote live regular-session near 246 as of prior close / morning. Partial session strength. Pre-event path shows recovery from October lows; modest gains are the observed anticipation. Expect modest further upside on beat and solid auto/industrial commentary. Strongest counter-evidence is mixed historical post-earnings closes (often down) and valuation sensitivity. Invalidation would be light guidance or auto weakness comments that break below 240. Completed daily history not fully detailed in snapshot (null for unverified 5-day bars and 20-session stats); avg share volume supports liquidity. Source: Yahoo Finance / earnings calendars. Price/volume evidence is mixed but supports modest continuation higher on the verified semiconductor demand narrative rather than reversal.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Intraday alpha vs SPY | Picks with positive alpha |
|---|---|---|---|
| Perplexity | V, HOOD, STX, RCL, GLW | +0.03% | 60% |
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | STX, FFIV, NXPI, GEV, OKE | -4.89% | 20% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | BA, PYPL, KO, V, HOOD | +1.13% | 40% |
| GPT-6 | ENPH, STX, HOOD, NXPI, V | +3.16% | 60% |
| DeepSeek | MSFT, GOOGL, KLAC, STX, SOFI | +0.75% | 60% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Event Gaps: Grok 4.7's picks for 2026-10-27.
ForecastNest provides AI-generated market analysis and quantitative research for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing here constitutes financial, investment, legal, or tax advice.