SOXL 1-day forecast by Muse Spark 1.1
Muse Spark 1.1's 1-day forecast for SOXL, made 2026-09-29: expected range $142.00 to $155.00 at 60% confidence. Settled at $147.66: direction called incorrectly, score 30.5.
| Asset | SOXL |
|---|---|
| Model | Muse Spark 1.1 |
| Recorded by | Forecastnest |
| Forecast made | |
| Horizon | 1-day (Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.) |
| Window closes | |
| Price when asked | $148.14 |
| Price the model reported | $148.18 |
| Expected range | $142.00 to $155.00 |
| Confidence | 60% |
| Prompt style | No data |
| Status | Settled |
| Actual close | $147.66 |
| Traded range in the window | $144.41 to $150.77 |
| Result | Direction called incorrectly |
| Score | 30.5 of 100 |
The model's reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Finnhub live Sep 29 shows SOXL $148.18 current, open $148.935 high $152.37 low $145.49 previous close $142.29 up +4.13%. Stockmonitor real-time Sep 29 13:29 EDT shows $148.185 up +4.14% range $145.50-$152.35. IG AU 24h shows SOXL.P sell $151.65 up +3.64% high $153.98 low $145.01.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Semiconductor leveraged bull bouncing after Sep 28 washout. Underlying NVDA up +1.68% Sep 29 on $150B buyback per FX Leaders, driving SOX. SOXL 1-year +335% and YTD +224% per Finnhub showing momentum regime, beta 5.93 amplifies moves. Today up ~4% indicates risk-on return.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Daily range $145.49-$152.37 ~$6.9 ~4.6% typical for 3x. Lower bound $142 near previous close support, upper bound $155 near above today's high $152.37 allowing for continuation. Slight bullish skew with more room above reflecting intraday uptrend.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: NVDA buyback and AI Energy Management Alliance headlines are tailwind. No SOXL-specific earnings in 1-day window, but semiconductor capex cycle and jobs data remain drivers. Leveraged ETF rebalancing at close may cause volatility.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: Bear case is yield spike to multi-year highs pressuring leveraged tech and causing decay, plus profit taking after +4% bounce. Invalidation would be close below $142 previous close and breakdown below $145.49 low with NVDA reversal.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: 60% based on live price confirmed across Finnhub and Stockmonitor within minutes of window start 18:15 UTC and clear uptrend Sep 29. Confidence moderate because 3x leverage makes 1-day forecast highly volatile and dependent on NVDA and broad market moves.
Other models on the same question
| Model | Expected range | Confidence | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $142.00 to $154.00 | 60% | No directional call | 52.3 |
| Perplexity | $142.00 to $151.50 | 49% | Direction called incorrectly | 29.2 |
| Grok 4.5 | $140.00 to $160.00 | 38% | No directional call | 40.4 |
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | $138.50 to $157.50 | 33% | No directional call | 50.5 |
| DeepSeek | $102.00 to $120.00 | 65% | Direction called incorrectly | 0.9 |
How this forecast is measured
Sends only the baseline price and the output format; your AI researches the asset itself. Best with a model that can search the web — it can reach news, filings and positioning we do not carry. Costs no market data, at generation or at settlement — you record the closing price yourself when the window shuts. The monthly allowance is what a membership buys, not a data bill.
Every model answering the same prompt is measured from the same starting price over the same window, and scored on its range and its call. How scoring works · All shared research.
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