IONQ 1-day forecast by Muse Spark 1.1
Muse Spark 1.1's 1-day forecast for IONQ, made 2026-09-24: expected range $41.00 to $46.00 at 52% confidence. Settled at $46.18: direction called incorrectly, score 47.9.
| Asset | IONQ |
|---|---|
| Model | Muse Spark 1.1 |
| Recorded by | Forecastnest |
| Forecast made | |
| Horizon | 1-day (Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.) |
| Window closes | |
| Price when asked | $44.01 |
| Price the model reported | $43.28 |
| Expected range | $41.00 to $46.00 |
| Confidence | 52% |
| Prompt style | No data |
| Status | Settled |
| Actual close | $46.18 |
| Traded range in the window | $43.73 to $46.55 |
| Result | Direction called incorrectly |
| Score | 47.9 of 100 |
The model's reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Retrieved live quote for Sep 24 2026 showing IONQ trading $43.28, open $41.55, intraday range $41.30 to $43.32 and prior close $42.55 from upstox.com; Finnhub data shows current price $44.10, high $44.60, low $41.28, open $41.57, prev close $42.54. Market cap ~17.2B, beta 3.34. News flow from ainvest.com, fool.com, investors.ionq.com confirms Quantum World Congress Sep 23-25 Platinum sponsorship, Superion 256 deployment with Nvidia NVAQC noted by CEO Niccolo de Masi, Florida International University selection, Skyloom acquisition close, Q2 CY2026 revenue $80.05M up 287% YoY, full-year guidance raised to $450-460M, and warrants expiring Sep 30 at $11.50 strike per TipRanks.
(2) The current market regime: IONQ in high-beta momentum rebound regime. 5-day return +19.71% per Finnhub, 1-month +4.88% per Finnhub, 6-month +37.98% but YTD -1.72% and 1-year -36.48% indicating recovery from deep drawdown from 52-week high $84.64. Intraday +5.42% move reported by ainvest.com on milestone/partnership. Quantum sector bid into Quantum World Congress event. Volatility elevated due to beta 3.34.
(3) Price range justification: Anchoring to $43.28 live print at window start 2026-09-24 17:09 UTC. Using observed intraday range width ~$2.0 and beta-driven ATR, 1-day expected move ~6-7%. Setting lower bound $41.00 near today open/low to allow retest of $41.30 support, upper bound $46.00 above today's $44.60 high to allow momentum extension toward $45-46 if Superion/Nvidia headlines carry. Asymmetric skew slightly upward reflecting intraday bullish close and guidance raise, but wide both sides due to high volatility.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: Quantum World Congress ongoing Sep 23-25 in College Park with IonQ Platinum sponsor and reception Sep 24 6-8pm at GrillMarX per biohealthinnovation.org; pre-market most active status for IONQ Sep 24 per Webull; no earnings inside 1-day window but warrant expiry overhang Sep 30 creates dilution watch; FIU Superion deployment news within last 2-3 hours per Webull/Seeking Alpha feed.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: Bear case is acquisition-driven growth concern and insider selling $446.5M net over past year flagged by ainvest.com, plus warrant exercise dilution into Sep 30, and history of giving back intraday gains after guidance raise (jumped 12.4% then faded to $40). Invalidated if broader quantum selloff, negative commentary at World Congress, or volume dries up below $41.30 low breaking open.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Confidence 52% low-moderate because 1-day direction in high-beta name with beta 3.34 is close to noise despite clear intraday strength. Live price retrieved but short-term path dependent on event headlines and market beta, not fundamentals. Honest NEUTRAL tilt would be defensible, but intraday momentum and event bid support mild bullish lean with wide range to reflect uncertainty.
Other models on the same question
| Model | Expected range | Confidence | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | $40.50 to $46.50 | 58% | Direction called incorrectly | 31.1 |
| Claude Opus 5.5 | $40.80 to $46.60 | 35% | Direction called correctly | 67.3 |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $42.50 to $46.00 | 65% | Direction called correctly | 81.2 |
| Grok 4.5 | $41.50 to $46.50 | 42% | No directional call | 51.1 |
| DeepSeek V3 | $41.50 to $46.80 | 62% | Direction called correctly | 80.8 |
How this forecast is measured
Sends only the baseline price and the output format; your AI researches the asset itself. Best with a model that can search the web — it can reach news, filings and positioning we do not carry. Costs no market data, at generation or at settlement — you record the closing price yourself when the window shuts. The monthly allowance is what a membership buys, not a data bill.
Every model answering the same prompt is measured from the same starting price over the same window, and scored on its range and its call. How scoring works · All shared research.
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