SOXL 1-day forecast by Muse Spark 1.1
Muse Spark 1.1's 1-day forecast for SOXL, made 2026-09-24: expected range $131.00 to $152.50 at 38% confidence. Settled at $152.20: direction called incorrectly, score 15.5.
| Asset | SOXL |
|---|---|
| Model | Muse Spark 1.1 |
| Recorded by | Forecastnest |
| Forecast made | |
| Horizon | 1-day (Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.) |
| Window closes | |
| Price when asked | $146.03 |
| Price the model reported | $143.09 |
| Expected range | $131.00 to $152.50 |
| Confidence | 38% |
| Prompt style | No data |
| Status | Settled |
| Actual close | $152.20 |
| Traded range in the window | $141.51 to $153.90 |
| Result | Direction called incorrectly |
| Score | 15.5 of 100 |
The model's reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Finnhub quote shows Current Price $145.165 to $146 with Open $138.47 High $146.5 Low $136.9 Previous Close $146.25【245983213073979049†L9-L14】. StockScan reports latest closing price as of September 24, 2026 is $143.09【245983213073979049†L19-L22】. Kraken ticker also shows $144.93 on Sep 24 with day range $139.60-$150.99【245983213073979049†L26-L29】. Intraday news flow shows no chip-specific crash but broad volatility.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: SOXL is in a powerful multi-month uptrend - 5-day return +40.43% and 1-month +31.34% per Finnhub【5270931618355855950†L16-L20】 and YTD +247%【5270931618355855950†L20-L23】, with beta 5.94【5270931618355855950†L27-L30】. September 24 price action is a high-volatility reversal day, bouncing from ~$136.9 low to near $146.5 high, indicating dip-buying but also elevated bond-rate sensitivity.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Using $143.09 close as anchor, underlying SOX likely moves ~3-4% intraday; 3x leverage implies ~9-12% SOXL swing plus decay. Low $131 represents -8.4% below close, near retest of morning low $136.9 and a 5% SOX drop tripled. High $152.50 represents +6.6% above close, just above intraday high $146.5 plus one standard deviation extension. Asymmetric to upside to reflect intraday recovery momentum.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: No major SOXL-specific filings on Sep 24-25. Catalysts are macro: US rates / bond market move cited as driver of prior 15-19% intraday gap【2128614123810111101†L5-L9】, AI capex headlines driving 21% prior surge【2128614123810111101†L28-L31】, and ongoing Korea retail flow ($431M net buying Sep 1-4)【2128614123810111101†L76-L79】. 1-day window to Sep 25 17:00 UTC captures US cash session close and after-hours semiconductor futures, but no scheduled NVDA/AVGO earnings inside window.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: Bear case is leveraged decay after a large bounce + overbought 5-day 40% run. If 10Y yield spikes or SOXX breaks -5% again as on prior bond-driven selloff, SOXL could underperform its 3x promise due to compounding and retest $130 or lower. Invalidation of mild bullish intraday view would be close below $136.9 low on heavy volume.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Confidence 38% reflects very high realized volatility and conflicting close prints ($139.01 down 4.95%【245983213073979049†L40-L43】 vs $143.09 vs $146). Direction over 1 day is close to noise for a 3x ETF with ~6% intraday spread today. Live data retrieved but sources disagree by ~2%, so range is wide and neutral 1d signal reflects that.
Other models on the same question
| Model | Expected range | Confidence | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | $124.00 to $145.50 | 56% | Direction called incorrectly | 1.8 |
| Claude Opus 5.5 | $129.50 to $146.00 | 30% | Direction called incorrectly | 2.3 |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $140.50 to $151.50 | 55% | No directional call | 51.4 |
| Grok 4.5 | $128.00 to $148.00 | 42% | Direction called incorrectly | 2.5 |
| Kimi | $133.00 to $160.00 | 52% | Direction called correctly | 79.4 |
| DeepSeek V3 | $128.00 to $148.00 | 55% | Direction called incorrectly | 13.3 |
How this forecast is measured
Sends only the baseline price and the output format; your AI researches the asset itself. Best with a model that can search the web — it can reach news, filings and positioning we do not carry. Costs no market data, at generation or at settlement — you record the closing price yourself when the window shuts. The monthly allowance is what a membership buys, not a data bill.
Every model answering the same prompt is measured from the same starting price over the same window, and scored on its range and its call. How scoring works · All shared research.
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