SOXL 1-day forecast by Muse Spark 1.1
Muse Spark 1.1's 1-day forecast for SOXL, made 2026-09-23: expected range $137.00 to $151.00 at 58% confidence. Settled at $145.70: direction called incorrectly, score 47.5.
| Asset | SOXL |
|---|---|
| Model | Muse Spark 1.1 |
| Recorded by | Forecastnest |
| Forecast made | |
| Horizon | 1-day (Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.) |
| Window closes | |
| Price when asked | $145.19 |
| Price the model reported | $145.20 |
| Expected range | $137.00 to $151.00 |
| Confidence | 58% |
| Prompt style | No data |
| Status | Settled |
| Actual close | $145.70 |
| Traded range in the window | $136.90 to $147.20 |
| Result | Direction called incorrectly |
| Score | 47.5 of 100 |
The model's reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Finnhub reports SOXL Current $145.2 Open $149.89 High $151 Low $139.58 Previous Close $151.95 Change -6.75 -4.44% 6M +173.81% YTD +245.47% 1Y +323.32% beta 5.94. Stocktwits reports Current $145.25 Prev $151.95. StockInvest reports trading expectations Sep 23 move $145.52-$158.38 +/- $12.86 +/-8.84% from last close. Webull reports last week gain 1.51% from $142.80 to $144.95 high $154.1299 low $130 volume 244.52M. Earlier Finnhub Sep 23 $145.935 open $149.89 high $151 low $139.58 prev $151.95 5D +44.3% 1M +21% 6M +185% YTD +247% 1Y +323% beta 5.92 and Sep 22 $145.8299 open $137.67 high $148.705 low $137.46 prev $141.93 5D +44.2% per Finnhub Sep 22. NVDA $225.37 open $228.03 high $228.95 low $225.02 prev $228.87 -1.52% Sep 23 per Finnhub, GOOG $337.94 -2.72% Sep 23 per Finnhub, MSFT $498.335 +0.067% Sep 23 per Finnhub.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Pullback after +44.3% 5D per Finnhub Sep 23. From $151.95 prev to $145.2 -4.44% intraday low $139.58 -8.1% from prev then bounce to $145.2. NVDA -1.52% and GOOG -2.72% weigh on semis, but SOXL beta 5.94 amplifies. Webull last week high $154.1299 low $130 gain 1.51% from $142.80 to $144.95 shows support $139.58 near last week high $154 low $130 range. Regime mildly bearish intraday but bullish weekly.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to $145.2 Finnhub current Sep 23 same window 18:54 UTC. Using day $139.58-$151 Finnhub and $145.25 Stocktwits and $145.52-$158.38 StockInvest Sep 23 expectations +/-8.84% and $154.1299 high $130 low last week per Webull and $142.80-$144.95 last week close per Webull. Daily vol ~5% ~$7 due beta 5.94. Lower $137 -5.6% near $139.58 low if NVDA -1.52% continues, upper $151 +4% toward $151 high and $151.95 prev and $158.38 StockInvest upper captures bounce to $151. Slight downside skew today due to -4.44% intraday but 1d mildly bearish due to -4.44%.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: Window Sep 23 18:54 UTC 24h to Sep 24 18:54 covers Sep 23 close and Sep 24 open. Catalyst Fed speeches Sep 21-27 per HappyCoinNews, Micron earnings, NVDA $225 low $225.02 support, $18B BTC options expiry Friday $85k per CoinDesk Sep 23.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: Bear case: -4.44% below $145.25 to $139.58 low could retrace to $137 below $139.58 if NVDA $225 breaks $225.02 low. Bull case: above $151 high to $151 toward $154.1299 last week high per Webull if NVDA $228.95 bounce. Invalidation: close below $135 or above $155 would negate mild bearish.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Confidence 58% reflects live $145.2 open $149.89 high $151 low $139.58 prev $151.95 Sep 23 same day as window start 18:54 UTC, plus Stocktwits $145.25 prev $151.95 and StockInvest $145.52-$158.38 Sep 23 expectations +/-8.84% and Webull last week high $154.1299 low $130. Multiple same-day live sources at or after baseline. Labeling live because quotes dated Sep 23 at or after window start.
Other models on the same question
| Model | Expected range | Confidence | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | $134.00 to $151.50 | 61% | Direction called incorrectly | 51.6 |
| Claude Opus 5 | $118.00 to $147.00 | 18% | Direction called incorrectly | 4.5 |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $136.00 to $153.00 | 60% | Direction called incorrectly | 40.0 |
| Grok 4 | $135.00 to $155.00 | 40% | Direction called correctly | 78.2 |
| DeepSeek | $133.00 to $155.00 | 55% | Direction called incorrectly | 47.4 |
How this forecast is measured
Sends only the baseline price and the output format; your AI researches the asset itself. Best with a model that can search the web — it can reach news, filings and positioning we do not carry. Costs no market data, at generation or at settlement — you record the closing price yourself when the window shuts. The monthly allowance is what a membership buys, not a data bill.
Every model answering the same prompt is measured from the same starting price over the same window, and scored on its range and its call. How scoring works · All shared research.
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