BTC 1-day forecast by Muse Spark 1.1
Muse Spark 1.1's 1-day forecast for BTC, made 2026-09-23: expected range $81,500.00 to $86,500.00 at 57% confidence. Settled at $84,363.86: direction called correctly, score 80.1.
| Asset | BTC |
|---|---|
| Model | Muse Spark 1.1 |
| Recorded by | Forecastnest |
| Forecast made | |
| Horizon | 1-day (Continuous elapsed hours / calendar days; crypto trades 24/7.) |
| Window closes | |
| Price when asked | $83,873.99 |
| Price the model reported | $83,870.00 |
| Expected range | $81,500.00 to $86,500.00 |
| Confidence | 57% |
| Prompt style | No data |
| Status | Settled |
| Actual close | $84,363.86 |
| Traded range in the window | $82,851.76 to $84,897.04 |
| Result | Direction called correctly |
| Score | 80.1 of 100 |
The model's reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Finnhub reports BTC Current $83,870.7 Open $86,560.36 High $87,278.54 Low $83,500.01 Previous Close $86,560 Change -2689.3 -3.10% 5D +6.62% 1M +9.18% 6M +22.23% YTD -2.92% 1Y -23.89% cap $1.73T. CoinJuice reports $86,537 Sep 23 31.4% below ATH $126,156 median Sep -4.72% 13 years but Sep +10.16% week left. ThePaper reports $83,600 Supertrend support rejected at $87k dipped below $85k from high $87,279 to $84,344. Convex reports $85,308.6 Sep 23 live. CoinDesk reports $85,800 -0.55% 24h $18B quarterly options expiry Friday around $85k +8% Sep +50% Q3. BestCryptoChecker Sep 2026 +9.25% start $78,549.60 close $85,813.50 11 up 12 down. DailyForex Sep 23 bullish upside level $91k highest since Jan.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Pullback after $87,278.54 high Sep 23 per Finnhub high, low $83,500.01 near $83,600 Supertrend support per ThePaper. From $85,896 Sep 22 high $87,395 to $83,870 -2.3% Sep 23. 5D +6.62% still positive vs Sep 22 +11.82% but fading. CoinDesk $85,800 -0.55% and ThePaper rejection at $87k indicates short liquidation rally lost traction per ThePaper. Regime mildly bearish intraday but neutral 1d due to +10% Sep per CoinJuice.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to $83,870.7 Finnhub current Sep 23 same window 17:07 UTC. Using day $83,500.01-$87,278.54 Finnhub and $83,600 Supertrend support per ThePaper and $84,344 low per ThePaper and $86,537 CoinJuice and $85,308 Convex and $85,800 CoinDesk. Daily vol ~2% ~$1,700. Lower $81,500 -2.8% below $83,500 low if $83,600 support fails per ThePaper, upper $86,500 +3.1% toward $87,278 high and $86,560 open captures bounce to $86k. Slight downside skew today due to -3.10% intraday but neutral 1d due to options expiry $85k per CoinDesk.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: Window Sep 23 17:07 UTC 24h to Sep 24 17:07 covers Sep 23 close and Sep 24 open. Catalyst $18B quarterly options expiry Friday around $85k per CoinDesk, Fed speeches Sep 21-27 per HappyCoinNews, ETF demand per CoinJuice. No halving.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: Bear case: -3.10% below $85k to $83,500 could retrace to $81,500 below $83,600 Supertrend per ThePaper if options expiry pressure. Bull case: $86,500 above $85,800 CoinDesk could squeeze to $87,278 high toward $91k upside level per DailyForex. Invalidation: close below $81k or above $87.5k would negate neutral.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Confidence 57% reflects live $83,870.7 open $86,560.36 high $87,278.54 low $83,500.01 prev $86,560 Sep 23 same day as window start 17:07 UTC, plus ThePaper $83,600 support rejected $87k and $84,344 low same day Sep 23, plus CoinJuice $86,537 Sep 23 and Convex $85,308 Sep 23 and CoinDesk $85,800 -0.55% same day. Multiple same-day live sources at or after baseline. Labeling live because quotes dated Sep 23 at or after window start.
Other models on the same question
| Model | Expected range | Confidence | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | $81,800.00 to $88,000.00 | 56% | Direction called correctly | 80.4 |
| Claude Opus 5 | $82,600.00 to $87,900.00 | 30% | Direction called incorrectly | 15.2 |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $82,000.00 to $86,500.00 | 70% | Direction called correctly | 82.3 |
| Grok 4 | $82,500.00 to $86,500.00 | 48% | Direction called correctly | 79.9 |
| DeepSeek | $82,500.00 to $87,500.00 | 58% | Direction called incorrectly | 17.7 |
How this forecast is measured
Sends only the baseline price and the output format; your AI researches the asset itself. Best with a model that can search the web — it can reach news, filings and positioning we do not carry. Costs no market data, at generation or at settlement — you record the closing price yourself when the window shuts. The monthly allowance is what a membership buys, not a data bill.
Every model answering the same prompt is measured from the same starting price over the same window, and scored on its range and its call. How scoring works · All shared research.
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