SOXL 1-day forecast by Muse Spark 1.1
Muse Spark 1.1's 1-day forecast for SOXL, made 2026-09-22: expected range $138.00 to $152.00 at 58% confidence. Settled at $145.08: direction called correctly, score 80.7.
| Asset | SOXL |
|---|---|
| Model | Muse Spark 1.1 |
| Recorded by | Forecastnest |
| Forecast made | |
| Horizon | 1-day (Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.) |
| Window closes | |
| Price when asked | $145.80 |
| Price the model reported | $145.83 |
| Expected range | $138.00 to $152.00 |
| Confidence | 58% |
| Prompt style | No data |
| Status | Settled |
| Actual close | $145.08 |
| Traded range in the window | $139.58 to $152.64 |
| Result | Direction called correctly |
| Score | 80.7 of 100 |
The model's reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Finnhub reports SOXL Current $145.8299 Open $137.67 High $148.705 Low $137.46 Previous Close $141.93 5D +44.2% 1M +20.92% 6M +185.16% YTD +246.97% 1Y +323.55% beta 5.92. StockInvest reports $141.93 +18.26 +14.77% at close Sep 21 volatile ride $129.62-$144.00 buy candidate Sep 21. Earlier Finnhub Sep 22 $146.12 open $137.67 high $146.96 low $137.46 prev $141.93 5D +44.49% 1M +21.16% 6M +185.73% YTD +247.66% 1Y +324.4% beta 5.92 same day. NVDA $228.1475 +0.3375% open $226.85 high $229.6 low $226.5 prev $227.38 5D +8.15% per Finnhub Sep 22, GOOG $356.305 +1.549% per Finnhub Sep 22, MSFT $498.78 -0.56% per Finnhub Sep 22. Barchart SPY $765.16 +0.44% Sep 22.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Explosive semis continuation. From $141.93 Sep 21 close to $145.83 Sep 22 +2.7% high $148.705 above $144 Sep 21 high. 5-day +44.2% vs SPY +0.44% per Barchart Sep 22 shows massive outperformance. NVDA $228.14 high $229.6 low $226.5 supports 3x, BTC $85,896 Sep 22 +0.17% high $87,395 low $85,114 5D +11.82% per Finnhub risk-on. Regime bullish with beta 5.92 amplifying.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to $145.8299 Finnhub current Sep 22 same window 14:56 UTC. Using day $137.46-$148.705 Finnhub and $129.62-$144 StockInvest Sep 21 and $146.12 earlier Finnhub high $146.96 low $137.46. Daily vol triple ~5% ~$7. Lower $138 -5.3% near $137.46 low and $137.67 open if profit taking, upper $152 +4.2% toward $154.12 last week high per Webull $142.80 to $144.95 high $154.12 extension above $148.705 high captures momentum. Slight upside skew due to +44.2% 5D and +2.7% intraday.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: Window Sep 22 14:56 UTC 24h to Sep 23 14:56 covers Sep 22 close and Sep 23 open. Fed speeches Sep 21-27 per HappyCoinNews, US-China talks, Micron earnings, NVDA $228 momentum, SPY $765.16 +0.44% per Barchart. No SOXL dividend in window.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: Bear case: +44.2% 5D +246% YTD overbought high $148.705 could retrace to $137.46 low $138 if NVDA $228 fades to $226.5 low. Bull case: above $148.705 high to $152 if NVDA $229.6 breakout and BTC $87k holds. Invalidation: close below $135 or above $155 would negate mild bullish.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Confidence 58% reflects live $145.8299 open $137.67 high $148.705 low $137.46 prev $141.93 Sep 22 same day as window start 14:56 UTC, plus earlier Finnhub $146.12 open $137.67 high $146.96 low $137.46 same day, plus StockInvest $141.93 +14.77% Sep 21 close range $129.62-$144.00. Multiple same-day live sources after baseline. Labeling live because quotes dated Sep 22 at or after window start.
Other models on the same question
| Model | Expected range | Confidence | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | $135.00 to $156.00 | 55% | Direction called incorrectly | 33.9 |
| Claude Opus 5 | $116.00 to $137.00 | 20% | Direction called incorrectly | 6.0 |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $138.00 to $154.00 | 60% | Direction called incorrectly | 30.4 |
| Grok 4.5 | $138.00 to $155.00 | 48% | Direction called incorrectly | 39.7 |
| Claude Sonnet 4.5 | $138.00 to $150.00 | 50% | No directional call | 42.0 |
How this forecast is measured
Sends only the baseline price and the output format; your AI researches the asset itself. Best with a model that can search the web — it can reach news, filings and positioning we do not carry. Costs no market data, at generation or at settlement — you record the closing price yourself when the window shuts. The monthly allowance is what a membership buys, not a data bill.
Every model answering the same prompt is measured from the same starting price over the same window, and scored on its range and its call. How scoring works · All shared research.
ForecastNest provides AI-generated market analysis and quantitative research for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing here constitutes financial, investment, legal, or tax advice.