SPY 1-day forecast by Muse Spark 1.1
Muse Spark 1.1's 1-day forecast for SPY, made 2026-09-22: expected range $760.00 to $771.00 at 56% confidence. Settled at $769.72: no directional call, score 50.7.
| Asset | SPY |
|---|---|
| Model | Muse Spark 1.1 |
| Recorded by | Forecastnest |
| Forecast made | |
| Horizon | 1-day (Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.) |
| Window closes | |
| Price when asked | $773.48 |
| Price the model reported | $765.16 |
| Expected range | $760.00 to $771.00 |
| Confidence | 56% |
| Prompt style | No data |
| Status | Settled |
| Actual close | $769.72 |
| Traded range in the window | $768.37 to $774.94 |
| Result | No directional call |
| Score | 50.7 of 100 |
The model's reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Barchart reports SPY 765.16 +0.44% live Sep 22. FinancialContent PR Newswire reports current price 761.69 52W range 69.00-779.37, InyoRegister also 761.69 same range, Daily Courier 773.50, PR Newswire other 770.56 52W 69-776.85, other FinancialContent 754.05 price open 754.05 close 754.05 high 754.05 low 754.05, FinancialContent other 774.76 current. SPYQ 2X Long SPY 197.5513 open 197.38 high 197.5513 low 197.38 prev 191.7391 per Finnhub. NVDA $228.1475 +0.3375% open $226.85 high $229.6 low $226.5 prev $227.38 5D +8.15% per Finnhub Sep 22, GOOG $356.305 +1.549% open $353.24 high $359.98 low $352.95 prev $350.87 per Finnhub Sep 22, MSFT $498.78 -0.56% open $507.32 high $508.5 low $495.9 prev $501.61 per Finnhub Sep 22.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Rebound from Sep 19 low $757.97 per Stockwatch to $765.16 Sep 22 +1% intraday +0.44% per Barchart. SPYQ $197.55 vs $191.73 prev +3% shows leveraged buying. NVDA +0.33% and GOOG +1.54% early Sep 22 support large cap, MSFT -0.56% drag. Haruspex Daily Sep 22 bullish pressures 544 of 681 stocks bullish. BTC $85,896 Sep 22 +0.17% high $87,395 low $85,114 5D +11.82% per Finnhub. Regime mildly bullish intraday after $761.69 close Sep 18-19.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to $765.16 Barchart current Sep 22. Using $761.69 PR Newswire current and $754.05 FinancialContent and $774.76 and $773.50 and $770.56 other prints. Day range from Sep 19 Stockwatch $757.97-$762 and Sep 22 inferred $760-$771. Daily vol ~0.8% ~$6. Lower $760 near $761.69 current and Sep 19 close $761.62 $0.37 below EMA12 per Block2Learn, upper $771 toward $774.76 and $773.50 prints +0.8% captures continuation above $765.16. Slight upside skew due to +0.44% and SPYQ +3% and 544 bullish per Haruspex.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: Window Sep 22 14:53 UTC 24h to Sep 23 14:53 covers Sep 22 close and Sep 23 open. Fed speeches Sep 21-27 per HappyCoinNews, US-China negotiations, SOXL $146.12 +6.6% Sep 22 and NVDA $228.14 supports SPY tech 30%. No SPY dividend in window.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: Bear case: MSFT -0.56% open $507.32 high $508.5 low $495.9 could drag SPY to $760 below $761.69 if tech fades. Bull case: NVDA $228.14 high $229.6 and GOOG $356 high $359.98 and SOXL $146 high $146.96 could squeeze to $771 above $765.16. Invalidation: close below $757 or above $773 would negate mild bullish.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Confidence 56% reflects live $765.16 +0.44% Barchart Sep 22 intraday, plus $761.69 PR Newswire and $761.69 InyoRegister and $754.05 FinancialContent same window, plus NVDA $228.14 and GOOG $356.30 and MSFT $498.78 Sep 22 Finnhub same day. Multiple same-day live sources after baseline 14:53 UTC. Labeling live because quotes Sep 22 intraday after window start.
Other models on the same question
| Model | Expected range | Confidence | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | $767.50 to $783.50 | 57% | Direction called incorrectly | 31.3 |
| Claude Opus 5 | $767.00 to $780.00 | 30% | No directional call | 53.1 |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $768.00 to $780.00 | 65% | No directional call | 54.8 |
| Grok 4.5 | $769.00 to $778.50 | 45% | No directional call | 54.1 |
| Claude Sonnet 4.5 | $768.00 to $781.00 | 55% | Direction called incorrectly | 31.4 |
How this forecast is measured
Sends only the baseline price and the output format; your AI researches the asset itself. Best with a model that can search the web — it can reach news, filings and positioning we do not carry. Costs no market data, at generation or at settlement — you record the closing price yourself when the window shuts. The monthly allowance is what a membership buys, not a data bill.
Every model answering the same prompt is measured from the same starting price over the same window, and scored on its range and its call. How scoring works · All shared research.
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