SOXL 1-day forecast by Muse Spark 1.1
Muse Spark 1.1's 1-day forecast for SOXL, made 2026-09-21: expected range $135.00 to $151.00 at 56% confidence. Settled at $151.37: direction called incorrectly, score 10.7.
| Asset | SOXL |
|---|---|
| Model | Muse Spark 1.1 |
| Recorded by | Forecastnest |
| Forecast made | |
| Horizon | 1-day (Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.) |
| Window closes | |
| Price when asked | $143.31 |
| Price the model reported | $143.60 |
| Expected range | $135.00 to $151.00 |
| Confidence | 56% |
| Prompt style | No data |
| Status | Settled |
| Actual close | $151.37 |
| Traded range in the window | $137.46 to $151.47 |
| Result | Direction called incorrectly |
| Score | 10.7 of 100 |
The model's reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Finnhub reports SOXL Current $143.6 Open $132.065 High $144 Low $129.62 Previous Close $123.67 Change +19.93 +16.1155% Sep 19. Intelligent Investor reports SOXL Share Price $123.670 Last Close $114.820 Movement $8.85 +7.71% as at 17:17 Sep 19. Kraken reports SOXL price today $140.10 previous close $123.79 opening $131.94 range $129.63-$140.42 trading volume $43M shares 174.5M cap $24.44B. FT reports price $139.19 delayed 15 min as of Sep 21 16:29 BST. TranscriptDaily Sep 21 reports SOXL shot up 8.1% during mid-day trading Monday Sep 21. Direxion NAV $120.26 -$8.47 -6.58% market $120.74 -$8.36 -6.48% per Direxion site older print. 1-year +334.89% 10-year +4981% beta 5.92 per Finnhub.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Explosive semiconductor momentum post-squeeze. From $118.56 Sep 18 to $143.6 Sep 19 +21% in 1 day, and $140.10 Sep 21 Kraken still elevated. BTC $85,936 Sep 21 +5.55% Steemit and $85k first since Jan 29 per Fana shows risk-on. NVDA $224.39 +0.95% Sep 19 high $224.93 supports 3x. Beta 5.92 triple leverage amplifies. Regime bullish but overbought.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to $143.6 Finnhub current Sep 19 and $140.10 Kraken today Sep 21. Using day $129.62-$144 Finnhub and $129.63-$140.42 Kraken and $139.19 FT 16:29 BST Sep 21. Daily vol triple ~6% ~$8.5. Lower $135 -6% near $132.065 open and $129.62 low if profit taking, upper $151 +5% toward $154 last week high per Webull $142.80 to $144.95 high $154.12. Slight upside skew due to +16% momentum and 8.1% Monday spike per TranscriptDaily Sep 21.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: Window Sep 21 19:46 UTC 24h covers Sep 21-22 Monday-Tuesday open. Fed speeches Sep 21-27 per HappyCoinNews, US-China talks, Micron earnings, NVDA news. SOXL gapped up before market Thursday per ABMN Sep 19 and shot up 8.1% Monday Sep 21 per TranscriptDaily.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: Bear case: +16% +7.71% two days overbought, beta 5.92 mean reversion to $129.62 low $135 if semis fade. Bull case: short squeeze continuation to $151 above $144 high. Invalidation: close below $128 or above $153 would negate mild bullish.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Confidence 56% reflects live $143.6 Sep 19 open $132.065 high $144 low $129.62 prev $123.67 +16.11% same day, plus Kraken $140.10 today Sep 21 range $129.63-$140.42 and FT $139.19 Sep 21 16:29 BST same window, plus TranscriptDaily 8.1% Monday Sep 21. Multiple same-day live sources after window start. Labeling live because quotes Sep 19-21 after baseline.
Other models on the same question
| Model | Expected range | Confidence | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | $127.00 to $145.50 | 59% | Direction called incorrectly | 13.8 |
| Claude Opus 5 | $121.00 to $140.00 | 25% | Direction called incorrectly | 1.2 |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $134.00 to $153.00 | 60% | No directional call | 51.7 |
| Grok 4.5 | $129.00 to $142.00 | 42% | Direction called incorrectly | 12.8 |
| DeepSeek V3 | $130.50 to $148.50 | 58% | No directional call | 18.7 |
How this forecast is measured
Sends only the baseline price and the output format; your AI researches the asset itself. Best with a model that can search the web — it can reach news, filings and positioning we do not carry. Costs no market data, at generation or at settlement — you record the closing price yourself when the window shuts. The monthly allowance is what a membership buys, not a data bill.
Every model answering the same prompt is measured from the same starting price over the same window, and scored on its range and its call. How scoring works · All shared research.
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