BTC 1-day forecast by Muse Spark 1.1
Muse Spark 1.1's 1-day forecast for BTC, made 2026-09-18: expected range $77,500.00 to $82,500.00 at 54% confidence. Settled at $81,567.10: direction called incorrectly, score 32.1.
| Asset | BTC |
|---|---|
| Model | Muse Spark 1.1 |
| Recorded by | Forecastnest |
| Forecast made | |
| Horizon | 1-day (Continuous elapsed hours / calendar days; crypto trades 24/7.) |
| Window closes | |
| Price when asked | $80,576.01 |
| Price the model reported | $80,600.00 |
| Expected range | $77,500.00 to $82,500.00 |
| Confidence | 54% |
| Prompt style | No data |
| Status | Settled |
| Actual close | $81,567.10 |
| Traded range in the window | $80,504.15 to $81,707.67 |
| Result | Direction called incorrectly |
| Score | 32.1 of 100 |
The model's reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Finnhub reports BTC Current $80,600.01 Open $76,953.14 High $80,989.99 Low $76,259.98 Previous Close $76,953.14 Change +3646.87 +4.7391% Sep 18. Convex reports Bitcoin $78,036.6 as of Sep 18 2026 live. CoinDesk Sep 17 reports price dipped to $76,700 then $77,400 after UMich sentiment plunge and CPI. Market cap $1.548T per Finnhub. 5-day -0.82% 1-month +23.11% YTD -12.58% 1-year -32.67%. Fed hike Sep 16 12-0 to 3.75-4.00% per Cambridge digested.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Sharp rebound post-hike digestion. From $76,700 Sep 17 low to $80,989 high Sep 18 +5.5% intraday. Crypto highest-beta macro per Convex, correlates loosely with tech and inversely with real yields. ETF flows likely turned positive after rate delivered. SOXL +9.9% Sep 17 shows risk on returning. Regime mildly bullish after washout.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to $80,600 live Finnhub and $78,036 Convex. Using day range $76,259-$80,989 and $76,700-$77,400 prior. ATR ~3% ~$2400. Lower $77,500 near open $76,953 and $78,036 Convex -3.8% downside if profit taking, upper $82,500 +2.3% toward extension above $80,989 high captures momentum if ETF inflows continue. Slight upside skew due to +4.73% momentum Sep 18.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: Window Sep 18 14:33 UTC 24h covers Sep 18-19 post-FOMC. No crypto-specific events. Focus shifts to October Fed meeting per CoinDesk. Warsh remarks and Treasury yields $4.348% 2-year per Kitco Sep 17 drive. SpaceX Nasdaq 100 weight $12.4B passive buying per CoinDesk could spill to risk.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: Bear case: hawkish Warsh guiding more hikes and 2-year yield up 11.8bp to 4.348% per Kitco could push BTC back to $76,259 low if real yields rise. Bull case: dovish hold narrative and ETF flows could squeeze to $82.5k+. Invalidation: close below $76,000 or above $83,500 would negate mild bullish.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Confidence 54% reflects live price $80,600 dated Sep 18 after baseline with corroborating $78,036 Convex same day and $77,400 CoinDesk Sep 17, but post-Fed volatility elevated. Labeling live because quotes are same-day after window start.
Other models on the same question
| Model | Expected range | Confidence | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | $75,800.00 to $80,600.00 | 58% | Direction called correctly | 24.2 |
| Claude Opus 5 | $75,750.00 to $79,900.00 | 54% | Direction called incorrectly | 0.6 |
| Grok 4.5 | $76,800.00 to $82,200.00 | 42% | No directional call | 38.7 |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $76,000.00 to $80,000.00 | 65% | Direction called correctly | 21.7 |
| DeepSeek V3 | $76,000.00 to $79,500.00 | 62% | No directional call | 13.8 |
How this forecast is measured
Sends only the baseline price and the output format; your AI researches the asset itself. Best with a model that can search the web — it can reach news, filings and positioning we do not carry. Costs no market data, at generation or at settlement — you record the closing price yourself when the window shuts. The monthly allowance is what a membership buys, not a data bill.
Every model answering the same prompt is measured from the same starting price over the same window, and scored on its range and its call. How scoring works · All shared research.
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