SPY 1-day forecast by DeepSeek V3

The model's reasoning

(1) What I found: SPY closed Wednesday September 16 at $754.05, down 0.44% after the Fed delivered its first rate hike since 2023 (forum.finanzen.ch; RTHK). The ETF traded down to $749.60 during Wednesday's session before recovering, and spent the overnight session climbing back through $756.15 and $759.13 to $760.48 (TradingView). E-mini S&P 500 futures traded at 7,665.25 in Asian hours on September 17, up 0.55% from the previous session, and the 10-year Treasury yield eased to 4.998% from roughly 5.01% (Yonhap Infomax).

(2) Market regime: The FOMC raised rates 25bp to 3.75%-4.00% in a unanimous 12-0 vote. Chair Warsh said inflation 'is too high and has been for too long,' and the dot plot showed one more hike before year-end, with no cuts projected for 2027 (Benzinga). The S&P 500 fell 0.5% Wednesday, the Dow dropped 631 points, and the energy sector lost 3% as WTI crude settled down 3.2% (RTHK). The 10-year yield closed Wednesday at roughly 5.01%, its highest since 2007 (Benzinga). BofA's Savita Subramanian warned stocks are 'overdue for a pullback,' and Ed Yardeni cut his year-end S&P 500 target to 7,900 from 8,400, citing higher yields compressing multiples (Bloomberg, Benzinga).

(3) Price range: I am using the $749.60 Wednesday low as the structural floor and the $762.57 shelf as immediate resistance (TradingView). The next resistance above is $765.52, the level that has capped the range three times. Support below $749.60 sits at $745-$747. SPY is trading below its 50-day moving average, and the RSI and PPO are showing slowing momentum (StockCharts). With a bearish tilt, I skew the range downward: $745.00 captures a decisive break below the $749.60 floor toward the June-July range, while $762.00 represents a short-covering bounce through the $762.57 shelf if Treasury yields continue to ease and the Fed's hawkish message is digested.

(4) Catalysts: U.S. initial jobless claims (206.5K expected), Philadelphia Fed Business Index (32.1 expected), housing starts, building permits, and pending home sales are all scheduled for September 17 (XTB). The Bank of England rate decision at 13:00 UTC is expected to hold at 3.75%. No major Fed speakers are scheduled. The dominant theme is post-Fed positioning and whether the market treats the hike as a one-off or the start of a cycle.

(5) Counter-argument: The strongest bullish case is that $749.60 was swept and bought hard, the 4H chart showed a flush and reversal pattern with the heaviest participation reading in weeks, and futures are already rebounding (TradingView, Yonhap Infomax). If SPY reclaims $762.57 with volume, the entire break unwinds and $765.52 comes back into play. A clean break below $749.60 would confirm the bearish structure and open $745.

(6) Confidence: 60% reflects a clear bearish post-Fed tilt but genuine uncertainty around whether the sell-off is exhausted. The market has already priced the hike, and the overnight recovery from $749.60 shows buyers are active at the lows. However, SPY remains below its 50-day MA, momentum is slowing, and the hawkish dot plot keeps a lid on upside. A single day is a short window and the market is still digesting the Fed's message.

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