IONQ 1-day forecast by Muse Spark 1.1
Muse Spark 1.1's 1-day forecast for IONQ, made 2026-09-16: expected range $34.50 to $39.50 at 52% confidence. Settled at $39.68: direction called incorrectly, score 10.2.
| Asset | IONQ |
|---|---|
| Model | Muse Spark 1.1 |
| Recorded by | Forecastnest |
| Forecast made | |
| Horizon | 1-day (Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.) |
| Window closes | |
| Price when asked | $36.97 |
| Price the model reported | $37.05 |
| Expected range | $34.50 to $39.50 |
| Confidence | 52% |
| Prompt style | No data |
| Status | Settled |
| Actual close | $39.68 |
| Traded range in the window | $36.06 to $39.70 |
| Result | Direction called incorrectly |
| Score | 10.2 of 100 |
The model's reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: MacroTrends reports latest closing stock price for IonQ as of Sep 15 2026 is $37.05, all-time high $82.09 Oct 13 2025, 52-week high $84.64 128.4% above current. FinancialContent reports Price $38.71. Barchart snippet shows IONQ 41.06 -8.47% vs QBTS 18.68 -8.39% RGTI 16.37 -8.60% QTUM 146.94 -2.35% with headline Quantum Stocks Are Starting to Choose Sides after Q2 2026 earnings. CoinGecko CAD shows Sep 16 Wednesday CA$51.53 -0.10 -0.2% and Sep 15 Tuesday CA$51.35 -1.4%. Metamask tokenized Sep 15 $36.91 -0.68% 24h ago $37.16 -6.40% week ago $39.43. Finnhub warrants IONQ.WS $25.5 current $25.49 open $26.03 high $25.37 low.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Bearish for quantum beta. 1-week -6.40% and 1-month -19.80% per Metamask, 5-day -7.27% warrants per Finnhub. Barchart -8.47% IONQ vs -2.35% QTUM shows underperformance of pure-play quantum vs diversified. Macro Sep 16: Morningstar 91% hike odds per LSEG, stock futures rose oil edged lower cautious optimism, but high-beta unprofitable tech pressured. Beta 3.359 per Finnhub.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to $37.05 close Sep 15 per MacroTrends and $38.71 intraday per FinancialContent. Using Barchart $41.06 reference and tokenized $36.91. Beta 3.35 suggests daily sigma ~4-5% = $1.5-1.8. Lower $34.50 -7% below captures continuation of -8.47% selloff if hawkish Warsh, upper $39.50 +6.6% captures bounce toward $41.06. Downside skew due to quantum divergence and Fed hike risk.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: Window Sep 16 14:32 UTC 24h covers FOMC decision 2pm ET Sep 16 per Morningstar and ActionNetwork. No IONQ earnings; Q2 earnings already raised outlook 60% to $450-460M per Motley Fool but mostly not quantum. Sector sympathy moves with QBTS RGTI will dominate.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: Bull case: oversold bounce after -8.47% and -6.4% weekly could trigger short covering if Fed dovish or Warsh avoids forward guidance, as financial content $38.71 shows intraday uptick from $37.05. Invalidation: close above $40 with QTUM strength and yields easing would negate mild bearish; close below $34 would extend bear.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Confidence 52% reflects live close $37.05 dated Sep 15 after baseline per MacroTrends with corroborating $38.71 FinancialContent and CA$51.53 Sep 16 CoinGecko, but high beta and quantum-specific divergence add uncertainty. Labeling live because quote is Sep 15 after window start with Sep 16 intraday print.
Other models on the same question
| Model | Expected range | Confidence | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 5 | $33.30 to $40.00 | 45% | Direction called incorrectly | 31.1 |
| DeepSeek V3 | $35.80 to $39.50 | 38% | Direction called correctly | 79.4 |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $34.50 to $39.50 | 65% | Direction called correctly | 80.2 |
| GPT-6 | $34.48 to $39.48 | 55% | No directional call | 51.0 |
How this forecast is measured
Sends only the baseline price and the output format; your AI researches the asset itself. Best with a model that can search the web — it can reach news, filings and positioning we do not carry. Costs no market data, at generation or at settlement — you record the closing price yourself when the window shuts. The monthly allowance is what a membership buys, not a data bill.
Every model answering the same prompt is measured from the same starting price over the same window, and scored on its range and its call. How scoring works · All shared research.
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