SPY 1-day forecast by Muse Spark 1.1
Muse Spark 1.1's 1-day forecast for SPY, made 2026-09-15: expected range $752.00 to $767.00 at 57% confidence. Settled at $759.31: direction called incorrectly, score 31.7.
| Asset | SPY |
|---|---|
| Model | Muse Spark 1.1 |
| Recorded by | Forecastnest |
| Forecast made | |
| Horizon | 1-day (Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.) |
| Window closes | |
| Price when asked | $757.93 |
| Price the model reported | $760.88 |
| Expected range | $752.00 to $767.00 |
| Confidence | 57% |
| Prompt style | No data |
| Status | Settled |
| Actual close | $759.31 |
| Traded range in the window | $756.15 to $760.43 |
| Result | Direction called incorrectly |
| Score | 31.7 of 100 |
The model's reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: MacroTrends reports latest closing stock price for SPY as of Sep 14 2026 is $760.88, all-time high close $777.88 Aug 13 2026. FinancialContent shows Price $763.71 Open $764.08 High $764.38, and another FinancialContent quote current price $764.62. ADVFN options chain shows strikes around $762-765 with last prices Sep 14. ActionNetwork Sep 15 piece notes SPY faces September toss-up with Fed meeting Sep 16 and key level $760. TalkMarkets Sep 15 Market Pulse notes oil Brent $106.9-107 WTI $102.8 up 1.2-1.4% and markets pricing 88% Fed hike tomorrow. NordFX Sep 15 notes FOMC 87-88% hike odds, ECB hiked Sep 10 to 2.50%.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Bearish tilt into FOMC. SPY down from $777.88 high to $760.88, -2.2% off high, with energy leading and tech/growth lagging due to 4.86% yield and 88% hike odds. Kitco reports Wall St futures slip as oil surge puts markets on edge, energy premarket +1.57% MPC +1.63% OXY. Consumer sentiment fell to 47.8 vs 51.3 expected per Barchart. Regime favors commodity over broad market beta.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to $760.88 Sep 14 close. Using prior high $777.88 resistance and recent $760 support noted in ActionNetwork as catalyst level for Sep 16 Fed. Daily ATR ~1% given FOMC vol. Lower bound $752 ~1.2% below captures breakdown if hawkish hold, upper $767 ~0.8% above captures bounce toward $764.38 high. More room below reflects 88% hike odds and oil-driven inflation concerns pressuring multiples.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: Window Sep 15 14:14 UTC 1 day covers Sep 15 regular close to Sep 16 14:14 UTC, which includes FOMC decision Sep 16 2pm ET per ActionNetwork ET on September 16. Also includes pre-FOMC positioning, oil price follow-through from Saudi pipeline shut and Hormuz talks stalled per TalkMarkets, and Canada CPI morning Sep 15. No major earnings inside window.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: Bull case: dovish Fed or pause after ECB hike could spark relief rally back toward $770-777 high, especially if oil pulls back and yields ease. Oversold bounce after -2.2% off high possible. Invalidation: close above $768 with falling yields and Brent below $100 would negate mild bearish bias; close below $752 would open $740.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Confidence 57% reflects live close Sep 14 $760.88 from MacroTrends dated after baseline, corroborated by $763-764 intraday quotes Sep 14. Direction over 24h into FOMC is noisy, hence moderate-low. Labeling live because price dated Sep 14 after window start minus weekend, but not overstating due to mixed signals and high event risk.
Other models on the same question
| Model | Expected range | Confidence | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 5 | $751.00 to $767.00 | 56% | Direction called incorrectly | 31.0 |
| GPT-6 | $749.00 to $765.50 | 60% | Direction called incorrectly | 31.4 |
| DeepSeek V3 | $748.00 to $764.00 | 58% | Direction called incorrectly | 31.0 |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $752.00 to $765.00 | 75% | No directional call | 55.1 |
How this forecast is measured
Sends only the baseline price and the output format; your AI researches the asset itself. Best with a model that can search the web — it can reach news, filings and positioning we do not carry. Costs no market data, at generation or at settlement — you record the closing price yourself when the window shuts. The monthly allowance is what a membership buys, not a data bill.
Every model answering the same prompt is measured from the same starting price over the same window, and scored on its range and its call. How scoring works · All shared research.
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