SPY 1-day forecast by Grok 4.5
Grok 4.5's 1-day forecast for SPY, made 2026-09-05: expected range $762.00 to $778.00 at 40% confidence. Settled at $765.98: no directional call, score 53.3.
| Asset | SPY |
|---|---|
| Model | Grok 4.5 |
| Recorded by | Forecastnest |
| Forecast made | |
| Horizon | 1-day (Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.) |
| Window closes | |
| Price when asked | $770.24 |
| Price the model reported | $770.19 |
| Expected range | $762.00 to $778.00 |
| Confidence | 40% |
| Prompt style | No data |
| Status | Settled |
| Actual close | $765.98 |
| Traded range in the window | $765.15 to $769.69 |
| Result | No directional call |
| Score | 53.3 of 100 |
The model's reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Friday 4 Sep 2026 close was $770.19 (down 0.39% from Thursday’s $773.17), day range $769.00-$772.87, volume ~27-34M, per CNBC, Motley Fool, FT.com and FinanceCharts. After-hours held near $769.45. Prior closes: 3 Sep $773.17, 2 Sep $765.16. 52-week range $629.28-$779.37.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Mild pullback after Thursday’s rebound, with SPY consolidating near recent highs. Price action reflects a balanced risk environment heading into the weekend without strong directional momentum.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to the $770.19 Friday close. Recent daily ranges of $4-8 and typical ATR support a 1-day window of roughly ±1%. Lower bound near $762 allows for a modest extension of the pullback; upper bound near $778 covers a retest of the Thursday high area. Range is roughly balanced given the neutral session.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: Markets closed over the weekend; Monday 7 Sep session will be influenced by any overnight global developments or residual positioning. No major high-impact U.S. data typically dominates the immediate next session.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: A sharp risk-off open could push SPY below $762; stronger risk appetite could drive a break above $778. Sustained trade outside the stated range would overturn the neutral stance.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Live Friday close is confirmed and the market is consolidating, yet single-day forecasts remain noise-dominated without near-term catalysts; moderate-to-low conviction is appropriate.
Other models on the same question
| Model | Expected range | Confidence | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $530.00 to $540.00 | 10% | No directional call | 1.3 |
| GPT-5.6 Luna | $756.00 to $778.50 | 76% | Direction called correctly | 83.1 |
| DeepSeek-R1 | $767.00 to $779.00 | 55% | Direction called incorrectly | 13.6 |
| Claude Opus 5 | $756.00 to $782.00 | 44% | No directional call | 52.8 |
How this forecast is measured
Sends only the baseline price and the output format; your AI researches the asset itself. Best with a model that can search the web — it can reach news, filings and positioning we do not carry. Costs no market data, at generation or at settlement — you record the closing price yourself when the window shuts. The monthly allowance is what a membership buys, not a data bill.
Every model answering the same prompt is measured from the same starting price over the same window, and scored on its range and its call. How scoring works · All shared research.
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