SPY 1-day forecast by Gemini 1.5 Pro
Gemini 1.5 Pro's 1-day forecast for SPY, made 2026-09-03: expected range $765.00 to $780.00 at 60% confidence. Settled at $770.24: no directional call, score 54.3.
| Asset | SPY |
|---|---|
| Model | Gemini 1.5 Pro |
| Recorded by | Forecastnest |
| Forecast made | |
| Horizon | 1-day (Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.) |
| Window closes | |
| Price when asked | $773.12 |
| Price the model reported | $772.70 |
| Expected range | $765.00 to $780.00 |
| Confidence | 60% |
| Prompt style | No data |
| Status | Settled |
| Actual close | $770.24 |
| Traded range in the window | $769.00 to $772.87 |
| Result | No directional call |
| Score | 54.3 of 100 |
The model's reasoning
(1) Data sourced from live market feeds confirms SPY closed the regular session at $773.17 on Thursday, September 3, 2026, rallying over 1%. As of 21:50 UTC (17:50 EDT), after-hours trading showed the ETF hovering near $772.70.
(2) The current market regime heading into Friday is characterized by pre-data tension following a strong technical bounce. Despite Thursday's robust rally, equities remain highly sensitive to incoming macroeconomic data, as institutional participants digest mixed labor signals ahead of the critical monthly jobs report.
(3) The price range of $765.00-$780.00 reflects the heightened volatility anticipated around Friday's macroeconomic data release. The downside bound allows for a pullback toward the $765 structural support level established earlier in the week, while the upside target permits a continuation toward the $780 major resistance zone.
(4) The dominant scheduled catalyst inside this 24-hour window is the release of the August US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday morning. This singular data point will heavily influence the Federal Reserve's near-term interest rate trajectory and drive immediate, high-volume directional flows.
(5) The strongest counter-argument to a neutral, range-bound forecast is the binary nature of the NFP report. If the data threads the needle with a
Other models on the same question
| Model | Expected range | Confidence | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Luna | $760.00 to $782.00 | 72% | Direction called correctly | 83.0 |
| Grok 4.5 | $765.00 to $781.00 | 42% | No directional call | 53.4 |
| DeepSeek-R1 | $768.00 to $780.00 | 60% | Direction called incorrectly | 31.3 |
| Claude Opus 5 | $757.00 to $785.00 | 45% | Direction called correctly | 79.7 |
| Claude Sonnet 5 | $757.00 to $785.00 | 45% | Direction called correctly | 79.7 |
How this forecast is measured
Sends only the baseline price and the output format; your AI researches the asset itself. Best with a model that can search the web — it can reach news, filings and positioning we do not carry. Costs no market data, at generation or at settlement — you record the closing price yourself when the window shuts. The monthly allowance is what a membership buys, not a data bill.
Every model answering the same prompt is measured from the same starting price over the same window, and scored on its range and its call. How scoring works · All shared research.
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