SOXL 1-day forecast by Grok 4.5
Grok 4.5's 1-day forecast for SOXL, made 2026-09-02: expected range $92.00 to $112.00 at 38% confidence. Settled at $106.82: direction called incorrectly, score 12.6.
| Asset | SOXL |
|---|---|
| Model | Grok 4.5 |
| Recorded by | Forecastnest |
| Forecast made | |
| Horizon | 1-day (Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.) |
| Window closes | |
| Price when asked | $105.78 |
| Price the model reported | $103.00 |
| Expected range | $92.00 to $112.00 |
| Confidence | 38% |
| Prompt style | No data |
| Status | Settled |
| Actual close | $106.82 |
| Traded range in the window | $98.63 to $108.07 |
| Result | Direction called incorrectly |
| Score | 12.6 of 100 |
The model's reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Tuesday 1 Sep 2026 close was $105.91 (down 6.10% from Monday’s $112.79), day range $102.31-$108.64, volume ~63M, per ChartMill, FinanceCharts, MarketWatch and Stock Alarm. Pre-market Wednesday 2 Sep quoted near $102.81-$103.19 (Robinhood, ChartMill). 52-week range remains $23.80-$302.00.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Sharp continuation of semiconductor weakness. The 3x leveraged ETF amplified the broader market’s soft session and sector-specific pressure, with SOXL dropping over 6% on elevated volume. Pre-market further soft, consistent with residual risk-off tone and high beta to chip names.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to the ~$103 pre-market level (last close $105.91). Recent daily ranges of $6-15+ and extreme leverage imply 1-day swings of 8-12% or more. Lower bound near $92 allows for extension of the selloff; upper bound near $112 covers a rebound toward the prior close. Range is asymmetric to the downside reflecting the clear short-term momentum.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: No major semiconductor-specific events or earnings for Wednesday 2 Sep. Broader market follow-through from Tuesday’s decline and any overnight geopolitical or rate-related news remain the primary drivers for this high-beta product.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: A sharp risk-on rebound in tech/semis or positive overnight cues could push SOXL above $112; accelerated selling or weaker global markets could drive a break below $92. Sustained trade outside the stated range on volume would overturn the bearish lean.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Live Tuesday close and pre-market quotes confirm the direction, yet 3x leveraged ETFs generate large path-dependent noise on single-day horizons; absence of stock-specific catalysts keeps conviction moderate-to-low.
Other models on the same question
| Model | Expected range | Confidence | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Luna | $98.00 to $111.50 | 78% | Direction called incorrectly | 30.6 |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $94.50 to $110.00 | 70% | Direction called incorrectly | 19.3 |
| DeepSeek V3 | $95.00 to $125.00 | 40% | Direction called correctly | 30.6 |
| Claude Opus 5 | $89.00 to $112.00 | 48% | Direction called incorrectly | 6.8 |
How this forecast is measured
Sends only the baseline price and the output format; your AI researches the asset itself. Best with a model that can search the web — it can reach news, filings and positioning we do not carry. Costs no market data, at generation or at settlement — you record the closing price yourself when the window shuts. The monthly allowance is what a membership buys, not a data bill.
Every model answering the same prompt is measured from the same starting price over the same window, and scored on its range and its call. How scoring works · All shared research.
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