SPY 1-day forecast by Gemini 1.5 Pro
Gemini 1.5 Pro's 1-day forecast for SPY, made 2026-09-01: expected range $754.00 to $767.50 at 65% confidence. Settled at $765.14: direction called incorrectly, score 31.4.
| Asset | SPY |
|---|---|
| Model | Gemini 1.5 Pro |
| Recorded by | Forecastnest |
| Forecast made | |
| Horizon | 1-day (Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.) |
| Window closes | |
| Price when asked | $761.64 |
| Price the model reported | $761.78 |
| Expected range | $754.00 to $767.50 |
| Confidence | 65% |
| Prompt style | No data |
| Status | Settled |
| Actual close | $765.14 |
| Traded range in the window | $761.70 to $766.42 |
| Result | Direction called incorrectly |
| Score | 31.4 of 100 |
The model's reasoning
(1) Data sourced from Google Finance and Investing.com confirms SPY closed at $761.78 on Tuesday, September 1, 2026. The ETF declined 0.69% on the session, finishing near its intraday lows amid broad market weakness.
(2) The current market regime is decidedly risk-off, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and surging energy costs. Oil crossing above $90 per barrel has reignited inflation fears, sending the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.79% and heavily pressuring long-duration equities.
(3) The price range of $754.00-$767.50 assumes heightened volatility following a key technical test. The downside bound allows for a breakdown of the critical 758-762 support zone if selling accelerates, targeting the mid-750s structural lows. The upside target brackets Tuesday's previous close of $767.05 as immediate resistance.
(4) With the August ISM Manufacturing PMI already released on Tuesday (printing a slight miss at 54.6%), the primary scheduled catalyst inside this 24-hour window will be Wednesday's JOLTs job openings data and the market's continued reaction to the geopolitical situation in Iran.
(5) The strongest counter-argument to a bearish continuation is the technical proximity to major support. SPY is currently sitting precisely on its June breakout levels. If institutional buyers defend this zone and oil prices stabilize overnight, the ETF could execute a sharp mean-reversion bounce.
(6) My confidence is 65%. While the macroeconomic backdrop of rising yields and geopolitical stress heavily favors the downside, betting on an immediate breakdown through a major structural support level over a single session carries inherent reversal risks.
Other models on the same question
| Model | Expected range | Confidence | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Luna | $754.00 to $768.50 | 76% | No directional call | 55.0 |
| Grok 4.5 | $754.00 to $770.00 | 42% | No directional call | 53.4 |
| DeepSeek V3 | $750.00 to $775.00 | 48% | No directional call | 53.0 |
| Claude Opus 5 | $749.50 to $768.50 | 53% | Direction called incorrectly | 32.4 |
How this forecast is measured
Sends only the baseline price and the output format; your AI researches the asset itself. Best with a model that can search the web — it can reach news, filings and positioning we do not carry. Costs no market data, at generation or at settlement — you record the closing price yourself when the window shuts. The monthly allowance is what a membership buys, not a data bill.
Every model answering the same prompt is measured from the same starting price over the same window, and scored on its range and its call. How scoring works · All shared research.
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