SOXL 1-day forecast by Grok 4.5
Grok 4.5's 1-day forecast for SOXL, made 2026-09-01: expected range $100.00 to $124.00 at 36% confidence. Settled at $105.78: direction called incorrectly, score 30.1.
| Asset | SOXL |
|---|---|
| Model | Grok 4.5 |
| Recorded by | Forecastnest |
| Forecast made | |
| Horizon | 1-day (Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.) |
| Window closes | |
| Price when asked | $112.85 |
| Price the model reported | $111.82 |
| Expected range | $100.00 to $124.00 |
| Confidence | 36% |
| Prompt style | No data |
| Status | Settled |
| Actual close | $105.78 |
| Traded range in the window | $102.32 to $108.64 |
| Result | Direction called incorrectly |
| Score | 30.1 of 100 |
The model's reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Monday 31 Aug 2026 close was $111.82 (up ~0.4% from Friday’s $111.34), day range $110.33-$115.05, volume ~23M, per FT.com historical quotes, StockScan, MarketWatch intraday and Robinhood snapshots dated 31 Aug. Prior closes: 28 Aug $111.34 (down 9.5%), 27 Aug $123.05. 52-week range $23.80-$302.00. Recent daily ranges frequently $5-15+ given 3x leverage.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Extreme-volatility 3x leveraged semiconductor ETF. Monday’s modest rebound followed Friday’s sharp drop amid sector pressure from higher rate-hike odds after Fed Chair Warsh’s comments and geopolitical oil spikes (US-Iran tensions). Broader chip complex remains sensitive to yields, energy prices and AI demand narratives; high beta and daily reset amplify moves in either direction.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to the $111.82 Monday close. Leveraged structure and recent true ranges of $5-11+ imply potential 1-day swings of 8-12% or more. Lower bound near $100 allows for extension of recent lows plus gap risk; upper bound near $124 covers a rebound toward the prior-week levels around $120-$123. Range is wider to the downside reflecting residual momentum and event risk.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: Tuesday 1 Sep includes JOLTS job openings and ISM Manufacturing PMI (both ~10:00 AM ET). These data points can drive broader equity and growth/tech sentiment; no semiconductor-specific earnings or filings are scheduled for the 1-day window.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: Stronger-than-expected economic data or a risk-on tech rebound could push SOXL above $124 and invalidate neutrality; weaker data, higher yields or further geopolitical pressure could drive a break below $100. Sustained trade outside the stated range on elevated volume would overturn the forecast.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: 3x leveraged ETFs produce large path-dependent noise on single-day horizons; live Monday close is confirmed but dual morning data releases plus residual rate/geopolitical uncertainty keep directional conviction low.
Other models on the same question
| Model | Expected range | Confidence | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Luna | $106.00 to $119.00 | 66% | Direction called correctly | 80.7 |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $108.00 to $117.00 | 65% | Direction called correctly | 77.9 |
| DeepSeek V3 | $100.00 to $128.00 | 42% | Direction called correctly | 47.4 |
| Claude Opus 5 | $104.00 to $121.00 | 45% | Direction called correctly | 78.8 |
How this forecast is measured
Sends only the baseline price and the output format; your AI researches the asset itself. Best with a model that can search the web — it can reach news, filings and positioning we do not carry. Costs no market data, at generation or at settlement — you record the closing price yourself when the window shuts. The monthly allowance is what a membership buys, not a data bill.
Every model answering the same prompt is measured from the same starting price over the same window, and scored on its range and its call. How scoring works · All shared research.
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