SPY 1-day forecast by Grok 4.5
Grok 4.5's 1-day forecast for SPY, made 2026-09-01: expected range $759.50 to $773.00 at 45% confidence. Settled at $761.64: no directional call, score 53.7.
| Asset | SPY |
|---|---|
| Model | Grok 4.5 |
| Recorded by | Forecastnest |
| Forecast made | |
| Horizon | 1-day (Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.) |
| Window closes | |
| Price when asked | $766.95 |
| Price the model reported | $766.21 |
| Expected range | $759.50 to $773.00 |
| Confidence | 45% |
| Prompt style | No data |
| Status | Settled |
| Actual close | $761.64 |
| Traded range in the window | $759.48 to $764.67 |
| Result | No directional call |
| Score | 53.7 of 100 |
The model's reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Monday 31 Aug 2026 close was $766.21 (down ~0.41% from Friday’s $769.35), day range $764.72-$767.62, volume ~14M, per FT.com, Investing.com, CNBC, Yahoo Finance and MarketWatch data dated 31 Aug. Prior closes: 28 Aug $769.35, 27 Aug $771.10. 52-week range $629.28-$779.37. ATR recently near $6 from prior technical snapshots.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Broad equity ETF near recent highs after a solid August gain, but ending the month with mild weakness. Monday’s decline reflected geopolitical tension (US-Iran strikes and oil rebound) plus elevated September rate-hike odds following Fed Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks (TipRanks, Barron’s 31 Aug). Regime remains constructive longer-term but data- and event-sensitive near-term, with tech/AI leadership still dominant yet vulnerable to yields and energy prices.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to the $766.21 Monday close. Recent daily ranges and ATR of ~$5-6 support a typical 1-day swing of roughly ±0.8-1%. Lower bound near $759.50 allows for extension of the Monday low plus potential data-driven downside; upper bound near $773 covers a rebound toward the 20-day area and prior-session highs. Range is modestly wider on the downside given the geopolitical and rate backdrop.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: Tuesday 1 Sep features JOLTS job openings (July data, 10:00 AM ET) and ISM Manufacturing PMI (August, 10:00 AM ET) per FedRateCalc, BLS schedule and Finance Calendar. These labor and activity reports will be the primary near-term drivers ahead of Friday’s payrolls; no other major equity-specific catalysts are scheduled for the 1-day window.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: Stronger-than-expected ISM or JOLTS data combined with a risk-on open could push SPY above $773 and invalidate the neutral stance; weaker data or further oil/geopolitical escalation could drive a break below $759.50. Sustained trade outside the stated range on volume would overturn the forecast.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Single-day index forecasts remain noise-dominated even with scheduled data; live quotes confirm the Monday close but the dual 10 AM releases introduce binary risk, while residual geopolitical and rate-hike uncertainty keep directional conviction moderate rather than high.
Other models on the same question
| Model | Expected range | Confidence | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Luna | $761.00 to $771.50 | 70% | Direction called correctly | 82.8 |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $762.50 to $771.50 | 70% | No directional call | 54.2 |
| DeepSeek V3 | $755.00 to $780.00 | 48% | No directional call | 53.0 |
| Claude Opus 5 | $757.00 to $773.50 | 47% | Direction called correctly | 80.3 |
How this forecast is measured
Sends only the baseline price and the output format; your AI researches the asset itself. Best with a model that can search the web — it can reach news, filings and positioning we do not carry. Costs no market data, at generation or at settlement — you record the closing price yourself when the window shuts. The monthly allowance is what a membership buys, not a data bill.
Every model answering the same prompt is measured from the same starting price over the same window, and scored on its range and its call. How scoring works · All shared research.
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