SPY 1-day forecast by Grok 4.5
Grok 4.5's 1-day forecast for SPY, made 2026-08-31: expected range $762.00 to $776.50 at 48% confidence. Settled at $766.95: no directional call, score 53.8.
| Asset | SPY |
|---|---|
| Model | Grok 4.5 |
| Recorded by | Forecastnest |
| Forecast made | |
| Horizon | 1-day (Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.) |
| Window closes | |
| Price when asked | $769.38 |
| Price the model reported | $769.35 |
| Expected range | $762.00 to $776.50 |
| Confidence | 48% |
| Prompt style | No data |
| Status | Settled |
| Actual close | $766.95 |
| Traded range in the window | $764.73 to $768.00 |
| Result | No directional call |
| Score | 53.8 of 100 |
The model's reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Friday 28 Aug 2026 regular close was $769.35 (down 0.23% from $771.10 prior close), day range $768.31-$775.30, volume ~36.7M, per CNBC, Yahoo Finance, MarketWatch, Motley Fool, GuruFocus and Zacks quotes dated 28-30 Aug. After-hours held near $769.3x. Recent closes: 27 Aug $771.10, 26 Aug $766.08. 52-week range $629.28-$779.37 (high on 13 Aug). ATR ~$6.32 and 30-day historical volatility ~11% from AlphaQuery and WallStreetNumbers data as of 28 Aug.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Broad equity index ETF trading near recent highs after a strong YTD advance (~13-14%), with mild consolidation. Leadership concentrated in AI/mega-cap tech. Friday’s modest decline followed hawkish Jackson Hole remarks by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh emphasizing inflation still above target and possible need for further rate hikes, lifting September hike odds (Reuters, WSJ, TipRanks 28-30 Aug). Overall regime remains constructive but sensitive to policy and labor data.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to the $769.35 Friday close. Recent daily true ranges and ATR of ~$6.3 imply a typical 1-day swing of roughly ±0.8-1%. Lower bound near $762 reflects extension of the Friday low plus gap risk into the Monday open; upper bound near $776.50 covers the Friday high and recent resistance around the mid-770s. Range is modestly wider on the downside given the post-Warsh tone and absence of positive catalysts on Monday.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: No major U.S. economic releases on Monday 31 Aug (per Yahoo Finance and FedRateCalc calendars). Focus remains on the upcoming September 4 jobs report and September FOMC; weekend news flow or overseas data could still influence the open, but nothing company- or index-specific is scheduled for the 1-day window.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: A strong overnight risk-on move or soft overseas data could push SPY back toward the $775-$779 area and invalidate neutral short-term bias; conversely, further hawkish Fed commentary or weak futures could extend the pullback below $762. Sustained trade outside the stated range on volume would overturn the forecast.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Single-session index moves are frequently noise-dominated; data is live through Friday close but pre-Monday open, and the post-Jackson Hole rate-hike repricing adds modest uncertainty without a clear directional catalyst for the immediate window. Confidence stays moderate given low realized volatility relative to history and the constructive longer-term trend.
Other models on the same question
| Model | Expected range | Confidence | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Luna | $760.00 to $773.50 | 68% | Direction called correctly | 83.4 |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $763.50 to $775.00 | 75% | No directional call | 55.3 |
| DeepSeek V3 | $759.00 to $785.00 | 52% | Direction called correctly | 79.8 |
| Claude Opus 5 | $759.00 to $775.50 | 52% | Direction called correctly | 81.0 |
How this forecast is measured
Sends only the baseline price and the output format; your AI researches the asset itself. Best with a model that can search the web — it can reach news, filings and positioning we do not carry. Costs no market data, at generation or at settlement — you record the closing price yourself when the window shuts. The monthly allowance is what a membership buys, not a data bill.
Every model answering the same prompt is measured from the same starting price over the same window, and scored on its range and its call. How scoring works · All shared research.
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